Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is the Democrat most capable of winning the White House in 2028 — and the one his own party’s base may be least willing to nominate. That’s the case American Thinker’s Arthur Schaper makes in a recent column that reads less like a Republican attack and more like a warning shot dressed up as a compliment.
Schaper’s argument is counterintuitive on its face: writing for a conservative outlet, he spends most of the piece cataloging why Shapiro would be a formidable general-election candidate, then explains why that very strength could sink him in a Democratic primary.
The Electability Case
Shapiro’s résumé is unusual for a modern swing-state Democrat. He has served as a state representative and deputy speaker, as Pennsylvania’s attorney general, and now as governor. He won his 2022 race by roughly 14 points, and Schaper — who says he made phone calls for Shapiro’s Republican opponent that year — writes that he was struck by how many GOP and MAGA-aligned voters crossed over to back the Democrat.
Schaper puts that crossover support at 9% or more of Pennsylvania’s Republican vote. For a party that has watched Pennsylvania trend toward the GOP in voter registration, with Republicans holding nearly every statewide executive office and sitting two seats from retaking the state House, that number is the whole ballgame.
The column points to Dave McCormick’s defeat of the long-entrenched Casey machine as evidence of the state’s shifting terrain, and notes that Senator John Fetterman has drifted toward the GOP in practice, even while denying any plan to switch parties. On that reading, Democrats cannot afford a nominee who merely wins blue states — they need one who can win Pennsylvania, and Shapiro has already proven he can.
A Record Built on Bipartisanship
Schaper credits Shapiro with a long list of pragmatic governing choices. As a state legislator, he served under a moderate Republican speaker because a narrow Democratic majority couldn’t settle on one of its own. As governor, he kept Republican Al Schmidt as Secretary of the Commonwealth rather than picking a fight over the post.
The column singles out Shapiro’s handling of the 2023 collapse of an Interstate 95 section in Philadelphia, when he coordinated local, state, and federal resources to restore six lanes of traffic in 12 days. Schaper frames that as the kind of “bread-and-butter competence” that appeals to voters who want normalcy without voting Republican.
On public safety, the piece notes Shapiro’s focus as attorney general on keeping guns away from criminals rather than targeting lawful gun owners, and his open clashes with Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner. It also highlights his response to two Pennsylvania crises: the 2018 Tree of Life Synagogue shooting in Pittsburgh, which Schaper describes as the deadliest antisemitic attack in U.S. history, and the 2024 assassination attempt on President Trump in Butler, where Shapiro worked with local and federal officials, including Republicans, on security reviews.
On policy, Schaper lists corporate tax cuts, property-tax relief, streamlined licensure rules, support for expanding natural gas and nuclear energy, withdrawal from the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, and an endorsement of fracking. He notes Shapiro’s openness to data-center development with ratepayer protections in place, a posture that puts him closer to Trump than to much of his own party on that issue.
And yet, Schaper writes, Shapiro remains a Democrat on abortion, guns, and LGBT issues — positions that should help him in a primary.
The Liabilities — Starting With Identity
Then the column turns. Schaper’s central claim is that everything making Shapiro nationally viable is something Democratic primary voters dislike — beginning with his being Jewish and having volunteered in Israel. He writes that a party “embracing anti-Semitism” may be unable to nominate someone with that profile, and that pro-Palestinian activists would rally against him.
He also points to Shapiro’s education record, particularly prior support for school choice measures, as a problem with teachers’ unions — a key Democratic constituency he says may not forgive him, even though the governor has recently backed proposals to reduce or redirect some existing school-choice funding. And he notes that Kamala Harris declined to pick Shapiro as her running mate in 2024 amid progressive opposition over his Israel and Gaza positions, arguing nothing has changed since.
Schaper’s prediction is that socialist and progressive factions would line up against Shapiro in a primary, calling out an expected coalition of Bernie Sanders supporters, the Democratic Socialists of America, and figures like Hasan Piker.
What Would Have to Change
The path Schaper sketches runs through 2026. If Democrats’ midterm results are a disappointment, he suggests, party leaders, consultants, and pundits could gain enough influence to steer primary voters away from the progressive wing and toward a middle-ground nominee who can compete in all 50 states.
It’s a strange piece of political analysis for a conservative site: a largely admiring inventory of a Democratic governor’s crossover appeal, followed by an acknowledgment that the same qualities could disqualify him with his own base. Whether Schaper is describing a genuine opening for Republicans in 2028 or warning his own side about a dangerous opponent, his conclusion lands in the same place — Shapiro is the Democrat who should worry the GOP most, if Democrats can bring themselves to nominate him.
Source: www.americanthinker.com — https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2026/09/election-2028-democrats-best-chance-is-josh-shapiro/