Ohio’s two marquee races are dead heats with six weeks to go, according to a Bowling Green State University poll released in mid-September — but the same survey suggests voters privately expect Republicans to win both.
In the governor’s race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican businessman Vivek Ramaswamy 48 percent to 45 percent, a three-point edge that sits inside the survey’s plus-or-minus four-point margin of error. When the same respondents were asked who they think will win regardless of their own preference, the picture flips hard: 62 percent said Ramaswamy, compared to 36 percent who picked Acton.
The Senate contest mirrors that split. Republican Sen. Jon Husted holds a 48-45 lead over Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown — again within the margin. And again, a majority, 53 percent, said they expect Husted to win, while 45 percent said the same of Brown.
A one-point generic ballot
The poll’s broader statewide numbers are just as tight. Asked which party they plan to support in their own district’s legislative races, 48 percent of respondents chose Democrats and 47 percent chose Republicans, a single-point gap.
The survey was conducted September 1-10, 2026, among 1,000 likely Ohio voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent. That margin means neither the gubernatorial nor the Senate lead can be called statistically meaningful at this stage, leaving both races effectively tied heading into Election Day.
The Senate matchup has drawn national attention because it pairs two well-known Ohio figures in a state that has drifted toward Republicans in recent cycles. The Cook Political Report currently rates the race as a tossup.
Economy tops voter concerns as wrong-track numbers climb
Ohioans surveyed put the economy and inflation at the top of their list of most important issues, followed by government corruption, health care, threats to democracy, and immigration.
Mood about the country’s direction is sour. Sixty-one percent said they believe the nation is on the wrong track, and 52 percent said the same about Ohio specifically.
Personal finances track with that pessimism. Forty-four percent said their economic situation has gotten somewhat or much worse; 39 percent said it has stayed about the same; and only 17 percent said it has gotten somewhat or much better.
Acton declines debates as campaign turns sharp
Acton, the former director of the Ohio Department of Health, has framed Ohio as “ground zero” in the national political fight. She has also refused to debate Ramaswamy, with her campaign manager saying a debate would amount to “platforming a scam artist who spreads baseless lies.”
Ramaswamy, a businessman who sought the GOP presidential nomination in 2024 before pivoting to the governor’s race, has not responded directly to that characterization in the polling coverage. The “who will win” question — where he holds a 26-point advantage over Acton — suggests at least some voters who tell pollsters they back Acton nonetheless expect the Republican to prevail.
That kind of gap between preference and expectation is not unheard of in late-stage polling, and it can reflect anything from name recognition to assumptions about the state’s partisan lean. It does not, on its own, predict an outcome, and the head-to-head numbers remain the more direct measure of where the race stands.
What to watch
With both races inside the margin of error and six weeks of campaigning left, the BGSU survey points to a state where neither party has a comfortable hold on either top office. The poll’s wrong-track and personal-finance numbers suggest an electorate in a restless mood, while the expectation questions hint that many voters are pricing in Republican wins even as they say they plan to vote Democratic.
Ohio voters will settle the question on Election Day.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/21/poll-major-ohio-races-neck-and-neck-ahead-of-election-day/