In a commentary published by American Thinker, author Mike McDaniel argues that the idea of a “trans genocide” in the United States is a fabricated narrative advanced for political purposes, dismissing it as “another Democrat hoax.” The piece, published September 27, 2026, uses a mix of academic research and crime statistics to challenge the framing of violence against transgender people as a systemic, bias-driven crisis.
McDaniel opens by mocking the concept, comparing it to claims about genocide in Gaza but asserting it is “not Islamist and right here in America.” He takes particular aim at Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson, who declared a “Trans Femicide State of Emergency” and, according to the column, renewed it in June. McDaniel cites reporting that the declaration came despite only one reported killing of a trans person in the city that year, compared with nearly 200 other murders. He notes the announcement drew widespread mockery for focusing on a small population while the city contends with dozens of weekly shootings primarily affecting Black residents.
Central to McDaniel’s argument is a study analyzing all 304 cases of fatal violence against transgender individuals documented by the Human Rights Campaign from 2015 to 2024. According to the figures he presents, Black suspects account for 65.1% of identified perpetrators, and this racial distribution aligns with general homicide patterns rather than indicating unique anti-transgender bias. Only 3.3% of cases resulted in confirmed hate crime determinations, and the primary identified motive was intimate partner violence, not bias. Solve rates averaged 61%, which McDaniel describes as at or above national benchmarks.
The column highlights additional findings: in 2020, zero white suspects were identified; young Black transgender women (whom he refers to as biological males) comprise 69% of all victims, yet their homicide rate is approximately one quarter that of young Black non-transgender men; and the aggregate transgender homicide rate remains below the general population rate. McDaniel sums up the data by asserting that the violence is “biological males killing biological males”—90% of suspects are male, 92% of victims are biological males, and about 80% of cases are intraracial. He concludes that “every dimension matches the baseline of American homicide,” leaving no room for white supremacy, transphobia, or conspiracy as explanatory factors.
From there, McDaniel pivots to what he calls the “bad news” for the trans genocide narrative: data suggesting that transgender individuals are not the victims of disproportionate violence, but rather pose a disproportionate threat. He cites Dr. John R. Lott of the Crime Prevention Research Center, who found that transgender people comprise less than 1% of the population (he uses 0.73% in his analysis). According to Lott’s research, from 2018 to 2024, transgender individuals committed mass public attacks at a rate 6.2 times their share of the population, a figure that increased to more than 16 times in 2024.
McDaniel references the Nashville shooter, claiming that most Americans know the attacker was transgender despite what he describes as media and government attempts to hide her trans ideology as a motive. He also lists other trans killers, including the Uvalde shooter, whose transgender identity he says has been largely successfully hidden.
The column then addresses the mental health dimension, noting Lott’s report that mass public shooters are overwhelmingly suicidal. McDaniel cites Williams Institute data showing that about 48% of transgender respondents had seriously considered suicide in the past year, and roughly 10–12% had attempted suicide in the past year. By comparison, he notes, about 4.3% of the general U.S. adult population reports suicidal thoughts in the past year, and about 0.6% report a suicide attempt. That translates to a rate of serious suicidal ideation roughly 12 times higher among transgender adults and an attempt rate about 18 times higher. McDaniel suggests that if these survey data are accurate, the elevated rates of suicidal ideation and attempts may help explain the overrepresentation of transgender individuals among mass public shooters.
He concludes by reiterating that “there is not, and has never been, a trans genocide,” but that transgender individuals commit mass attacks far out of proportion to their numbers and contemplate and commit suicide at even higher rates. For a group he characterizes as “uniquely mentally ill” and not getting the help they need for largely political reasons, McDaniel writes that none of this should be surprising.
The piece reflects a broader debate over how to interpret violence against transgender people. Advocates and many researchers have long argued that violence against trans individuals is underreported and that hate crime classifications often fail to capture bias motivations. They point to systemic discrimination, stigma, and lack of legal protections as drivers of both violence and mental health disparities. McDaniel’s column, by contrast, uses the same data to argue that the violence is better explained by general crime patterns and intimate partner dynamics rather than anti-trans bias, and that the mental health statistics point to a need for treatment rather than political mobilization.
Whether one agrees with McDaniel’s conclusions or not, the column raises questions about how statistics are used to support competing narratives. The study he cites documents 304 cases over a decade—a relatively small number that makes broad conclusions difficult—while the Williams Institute data he references are based on self-reported survey responses, which have their own limitations. The intersection of race, gender identity, and violence is complex, and both sides of the debate tend to select the data points that bolster their case.
American Thinker, which published the piece, is a conservative online publication known for its commentary on culture and politics. The column is written in a provocative, often sarcastic tone, referring to “trans and their enablers,” “Normal Americans,” and “the Trans Superiority and Trans Genocide narratives.” It ends with a subscription pitch and a brief bio of the author, who describes himself as a USAF veteran, retired police officer, and educator.
As the national conversation around transgender rights and violence continues, pieces like McDaniel’s serve as a reminder that the same facts can be marshaled to very different rhetorical ends. The debate is unlikely to be settled by statistics alone, as each side accuses the other of distorting the truth for political gain.
Source: www.americanthinker.com — https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2026/09/the-trans-genocide-narrative-another-democrat-hoax/