Texas Republican Rep. Pat Fallon said Republicans will beat expectations in next month’s midterm elections, dismissing polling that shows Democrats poised for a strong night and arguing the surveys are being used to suppress GOP turnout.
Appearing on Fox Business Network’s The Evening Edit, Fallon told host Elizabeth MacDonald that he had just traveled with House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and witnessed strong enthusiasm in Virginia and North Carolina.
‘Nothing new at all’
MacDonald opened the segment by noting that polls have a history of underestimating Republicans, pointing to 2016 and 2024, when President Trump outperformed the surveys. She cited a 2024 study of 100 national and battleground polls that found pollsters underestimated Republican support, and a Washington Post analysis showing polls overestimated Democratic candidates by more than six points in Iowa, Michigan and Ohio Senate races between 2018 and 2024.
Fallon responded that the pattern is familiar. “Nothing new at all,” he said, before predicting Republicans would again beat the polling averages.
“I will make this promise to you: Republicans will certainly outperform the polls,” Fallon said. “It’s just a question as to what degree.”
He pointed to a specific 2024 poll that showed Kamala Harris leading in Iowa by three points. “That was a joke,” Fallon said. “President Trump won that by double digits.” Final results showed Trump carrying Iowa comfortably.
Claim polls used to ‘discourage’ turnout
Fallon went on to argue that polling has been used by the left and the mainstream media to depress Republican turnout.
“You can’t trust the polls, and I think it’s been used by the left to try to discourage—and when I say the left, meaning I’m being redundant here—but also the mainstream media to discourage Republican turnout,” he said.
The congressman’s comments come as many political prognostications forecast a big night for Democrats in the midterms. Fallon’s argument echoes a long-running Republican complaint that public polling systematically undercounts GOP voters, a claim that gained traction after Trump’s 2016 win and again after his 2024 victory.
Whether that pattern holds in 2026 remains to be seen. For now, Fallon is betting that the same polling errors that surprised observers in past cycles will repeat themselves, and that Republican enthusiasm on the ground will translate into a stronger showing than the surveys suggest.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2026/10/22/gop-rep-fallon-republicans-will-certainly-outperform-the-polls/