A new survey out of Texas finds the race to replace outgoing U.S. Sen. John Cornyn locked in a near dead heat, with Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a razor-thin edge over Democratic challenger James Talarico.
According to an Emerson College Polling survey conducted August 9-10 among 1,000 likely voters, Paxton leads Talarico by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent. The margin falls well within the poll’s credibility interval, suggesting the contest remains fundamentally tied as the general election campaign shifts into higher gear.
Generational Divide Shapes the Contest
The Emerson data points to a deeply age-polarized electorate. Among voters under 50, Talarico holds a commanding 15-point advantage, drawing 53 percent support to Paxton’s 38 percent. But voters over 50 break decisively for Paxton, giving him an 11-point edge, 53 percent to 42 percent.
“The race for U.S. Senate in Texas is sharply divided by age,” the pollster noted in its analysis, a finding that could have significant implications for turnout strategies in the final months of the campaign.
The age gap mirrors national trends in which younger voters tilt heavily Democratic while older voters favor Republicans, but the magnitude of the split in Texas is striking and suggests both campaigns will be competing fiercely for middle-aged and swing voters in the closing stretch.
Governor’s Race Also Close
Texas’s other marquee statewide contest shows a similar dynamic, with Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa by four points, 49 percent to 45 percent. Abbott is seeking a fourth term, while Hinojosa has served in the Texas House since 2017.
The governor’s race remains competitive, though Abbott’s consistent lead in public polling has made him a modest favorite. Hinojosa’s campaign has sought to nationalize the race around abortion and education issues, while Abbott has emphasized border security and the state’s economic growth.
Poll Averages and Talarico’s Ceiling
The RealClearPolitics average of recent Texas Senate polls shows Talarico leading by 1.2 points, a figure that reflects the narrow margins across multiple surveys conducted over the past several weeks.
But as Breitbart’s Matt Mercer noted earlier this month, Talarico appears to have hit a ceiling of support that hovers just below the 50 percent threshold needed for a clear majority. Two polls conducted at the end of July reinforced this picture. A Wedgewood survey gave Talarico a nominal +2 advantage, 48 percent to 46 percent, while a Texas Southern poll showed Talarico leading 47 percent to 45 percent.
“The remaining uncommitted votes center on right-leaning voters who traditionally vote Republican,” Mercer wrote, suggesting that the undecided bloc tilts favorably toward Paxton as Election Day approaches.
For Paxton, the path to victory runs through consolidating those residual Republican-leaning voters and maximizing turnout in the state’s rural and suburban strongholds. For Talarico, the challenge is to expand beyond the Democratic base and pick off enough crossover voters to push his numbers past the 50 percent mark.
Historical Context Favors Paxton
Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in over two decades, and the state’s recent Senate history offers little encouragement for Talarico’s hopes. In 2022, Democrat Beto O’Rourke was defeated in the governor’s race by 11 points, a loss that underscored the steep climb facing any Democrat seeking statewide office in the Lone Star State.
Paxton himself carries notable political baggage, including a lengthy legal saga and ethics complaints. But in a state where Republicans hold every statewide office and the GOP has dominated Senate races for generations, Paxton’s vulnerabilities may not be enough to tip the race to Talarico.
The Emerson poll’s one-point margin, however, leaves room for movement. With the election still months away, both campaigns are expected to pour resources into the state, making Texas one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country despite its recent Republican tilt.
Observers on both sides will be watching whether Talarico can break through his apparent ceiling or whether Paxton’s late consolidation of Republican voters mirrors the pattern that has carried GOP candidates to victory in Texas for the past three decades.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/08/13/nolte-poll-shows-ken-paxton-ahead-of-james-god-is-nonbinary-talarico/