A new Fox News poll shows Republican Mike Rogers leading Democrat Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed in Michigan’s U.S. Senate race, but the result has sparked more debate about the network’s polling credibility than about the candidates themselves.
The poll, released this week, puts Rogers ahead by four points, 51 to 47 percent. According to the report, this is striking because Fox News polls have historically shown Republicans losing—a pattern that has led some conservatives to view the network’s polling with suspicion.
Rogers Ahead in a Key State
The survey aligns with an EPIC-MIRS poll from late last month that also showed Rogers leading, albeit by a narrower margin of three points, 46 to 43 percent. The consistency between the two polls suggests a competitive race in a state that remains a crucial battleground.
The Fox News poll is notable for its demographic breakdowns, which show Rogers performing well among key voting blocs. Among white men without a college degree, Rogers leads by 26 points, 63 to 37 percent. White men with a college degree favor Rogers by 12 points, 55 to 43 percent. White women without a college degree also break for Rogers, 60 to 38 percent.
However, one demographic stands out: white women with a college degree favor El-Sayed by 23 points, 60 to 37 percent. This gap highlights a clear educational divide among white voters, with those holding degrees leaning toward the Democrat.
Skepticism Over Fox’s Polling
Despite the favorable result for Rogers, Breitbart’s John Nolte remains skeptical of Fox News polling, suggesting that the network’s polls are “by design” skewed against Republicans. Nolte notes that Fox’s polls have consistently shown Republicans trailing in races across the country, and he argues that the network’s methodology may be flawed.
“We all know how much Fox News polls suck,” Nolte writes. “Fox News polls always—by design, in my opinion—suck at the expense of Republicans.”
He points to other Fox polls in the same release that show Republicans losing in deep-red states. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown is up eight points over Republican Jon Husted, 53 to 45 percent. In Iowa, Democrat Josh Turek leads Republican Ashley Hinson by four points, 50 to 46 percent. And in Texas, Democrat James Talarico is ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by three points, 51 to 48 percent.
Nolte questions the plausibility of these results, noting that Trump won Ohio by 9.3 points, Iowa by 13 points, and Texas by nine points. “Does anyone seriously believe Michigan is now more red than Iowa, Texas, and Ohio?” he asks.
Implications for the Senate Race
The Michigan Senate race is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched contests in the country. Rogers, a former FBI agent and congressman, is running on a platform of border security and economic conservatism. El-Sayed, a physician and former Detroit health director, is campaigning on healthcare and progressive values.
The Fox News poll’s margin may reflect a genuine tightening of the race, but Nolte’s commentary suggests that some on the right view the network’s numbers with a grain of salt. Whether Rogers’s lead holds remains to be seen, but the demographic breakdowns offer a window into the coalition each candidate is building.
As the campaign progresses, both sides will likely seize on any polling data that supports their narrative. For now, the Fox News poll provides a snapshot of a race that appears competitive, even as it reignites skepticism about the network’s polling methods.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/08/14/nolte-fox-poll-has-mike-rogers-beating-abdulrahman-mohamed-el-sayed-in-michigan/