Democratic pollster Doug Schoen has a blunt explanation for why his party keeps getting hammered on transgender issues: the radical base won’t let them drop it.
In an analysis published this week, Schoen argues that the Democratic Party’s ongoing struggles with transgender policies aren’t just a messaging problem—they’re a structural one, driven by the far-left wing of the party, particularly the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), that keeps pulling mainstream Democrats back into a fight most voters want them to lose.
The issue proved devastating for Democrats in the 2024 election, when President Trump successfully tied it to Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign. Post-election analysis showed the connection hurt Harris badly. Yet despite that clear political damage, Schoen says, Democrats continue to embrace positions on transgender issues that are broadly unpopular with the American public—especially the question of transgender athletes competing in women’s sports and the broader topic of gender transitioning for minors.
“Every time the Democrats try to get away from this,” Schoen said, “their radical base, particularly the DSA types, drag them back to it.”
The DSA’s Outsize Influence
According to Schoen, the most formidable challenge facing establishment Democrats heading into the November midterms isn’t just Republican opposition—it’s the success of far-left, socialist, and progressive candidates in Democratic primaries, and the party mainstream’s willingness to surrender to that wing.
The DSA, Schoen writes, has been advocating for an agenda that is radical in its drive to reshape America and is “broadly unpopular.” But the group’s influence has been particularly damaging on transgender policies, where the party has been hobbled before.
“Simply put, the DSA’s strong opposition to legislation banning biological males from competing in women’s sports has come to define where the national Democratic Party stands, much to its detriment,” Schoen wrote.
This isn’t a new problem, Schoen acknowledges. Democrats had been trending in this direction for years before the 2024 election. But it’s only getting worse, and it will continue to get worse unless something fundamental changes.
Public Opinion Is Decisive
The data backs up Schoen’s warning. According to a Gallup survey from May 2025, roughly 7 in 10 Americans—69%—believe transgender athletes should only be allowed to compete on sports teams that match their gender at birth. That includes 72% of independents and, notably, a plurality of Democrats.
In other words, a majority of the party’s own voters disagree with the position that the DSA and its allies are pushing on the national stage.
“Make no mistake,” Schoen wrote, “Democrats are on the wrong side of the transgender debate given public opinion.”
The political consequences are predictable. Schoen argues the issue will continue to dog Democrats for as long as they push it, and only after they have lost enough races because of it will they begin to see the light. Until then, he says, the public must keep reminding them how out of step they are with the majority.
Schoen’s analysis reflects a growing frustration among centrist Democrats who watched the 2024 election slip away in part because of cultural issues that their own base refuses to moderate on. With midterms approaching, the question is whether the party will heed the warning or let the DSA continue to call the shots.
Source: www.thegatewaypundit.com — https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/08/democrat-pollster-doug-schoen-explains-why-democrats-just/