Poll Finds Statistical Tie in Five Senate-Deciding States as GOP Leads in Ohio, Texas

A poll of five key states that are likely to determine control of the U.S. Senate after the midterm elections shows a statistical tie on the generic ballot, with 47 percent of respondents choosing Democrats and 46 percent choosing Republicans.

The survey, conducted by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation between August 20 and 27, polled 2,500 registered voters across Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas. As Breitbart’s John Nolte reported, the results reveal a closely divided landscape in the states most likely to decide the Senate majority.

State-by-State Breakdown

Democrats hold leads in three of the five states. In Georgia, they lead by two points, 48 to 46 percent. In Michigan, the Democratic advantage is three points, 47 to 44 percent. North Carolina shows the largest Democratic lead, with 49 percent to the GOP’s 45 percent.

Republicans, meanwhile, lead in Ohio by a single point, 46 to 45 percent, and in Texas by five points, 49 to 44 percent.

The narrow margins in states that have recently been reliably Republican have raised eyebrows. President Trump won Ohio by nearly 12 points in 2024, and Texas by 14 points. According to the poll, those advantages have shrunk dramatically, a shift that—if accurate—could signal a vastly different political environment heading into the midterms.

The article also noted that polling in Kansas—typically a Republican stronghold—now shows the Senate race there as competitive.

National Picture Shows Wider Democratic Edge

Nationally, the generic ballot tells a different story. According to the RealClearPolitics average of polls, Democrats lead by 8.6 points, 50.5 to 41.9 percent. That national advantage contrasts with the tighter numbers in the five key states, though the Peterson Foundation poll only surveyed those specific battlegrounds.

The broader polling environment has become increasingly erratic, with surveys producing widely divergent results as Election Day approaches. Nolte wrote that the proliferation of polls has made it difficult to draw firm conclusions, suggesting that three outcomes remain possible: a Democratic blowout, better-than-expected Republican performance, or a narrow result.

The article’s author argued that any Democratic victory—especially in states Trump carried in 2024—would be attributable to rising gas prices stemming from what he described as the necessary Iran War. He maintained that other economic indicators, including incomes, poverty levels, job growth, domestic investment, GDP, retail sales, and crime rates, are positive, but that gas prices have become the dominant national barometer, and the news there is unfavorable.

The Peterson Foundation poll offers a snapshot of a Senate map that remains highly competitive. With control of the chamber at stake, the five states surveyed—Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, and Texas—are expected to play an outsized role in determining which party holds the majority next year.

Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/18/nolte-poll-shows-statistical-tie-on-generic-ballot-in-five-crucial-states/