Democrat James Talarico’s internal polling is telling a different story than the headline-grabbing public surveys in his high-stakes Texas Senate race against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, according to people close to his campaign.
While a New York Times/Siena University poll in September and a CNN/SSRS poll conducted between October 20 and 27 showed Talarico ahead by 6 points, the candidate’s private numbers align with tighter surveys that show either a dead heat or a lead within the margin of error, sources familiar with the campaign told the Times.
The disconnect between public polling optimism and internal caution has campaign insiders concerned about a critical blind spot: rural conservative Trump supporters who may not be fully captured in their surveys.
Campaign Admits ‘Coin-Flip’ Odds
Luke Warford, chairman of the Travis County Democratic Party, put the race in stark terms when speaking about Talarico’s chances. “I think James has at most a 50 percent chance of winning,” Warford said, though he characterized even those coin-flip odds as “phenomenal for a Texas Democrat.”
That assessment stands in sharp contrast to the narrative built by some public polling. A Fox News survey in early October gave the Austin Democrat a 2-point edge, 51% to 49%, within the margin of error. A subsequent Fox poll found the two candidates tied at 49 percent each.
According to the Fox polling data, Paxton draws his strongest support from rural voters, white evangelical Christians, and Texans aged 65 and older. These are precisely the groups that Talarico’s campaign worries its internal polling may be underrepresenting.
Latino Voter Challenge
The 37-year-old former middle-school teacher’s path to victory runs heavily through Latino communities, where high turnout will be essential. But reports from the ground suggest trouble in key areas.
Democrat canvassers working in San Antonio and El Paso have encountered persistent loyalty to Trump and resistance to Talarico, particularly among Latino men, according to the Times report. This phenomenon has emerged as a potential obstacle to the turnout operation the campaign needs to execute on Tuesday.
Damage Control on Past Statements
In the closing stretch of the campaign, Talarico has spent considerable energy attempting to walk back previous statements that have become fodder for opposition attack ads. The candidate has described as “cringey” his earlier comments that God is “nonbinary” and that there are six biological sexes.
Those statements continue to circulate in opponents’ advertisements, creating headwinds the campaign is working to overcome in the final days before the election.
People close to the Talarico campaign have acknowledged that enough Trump supporters remain in Texas to swing the outcome in Paxton’s favor, should they turn out in force on Election Day.
Record-Breaking Spending
The race has shattered spending records, becoming the most expensive non-presidential contest on record with more than $500 million in combined expenditures from both sides.
A significant portion of that spending came from a single source backing Paxton. Earlier disclosures revealed that Elon Musk funneled $158 million to groups supporting the Republican Attorney General’s campaign.
The massive financial investment reflects the high stakes both parties see in the outcome, with Texas remaining a critical battleground for future electoral maps despite its recent Republican lean in statewide races.
With Election Day arriving Tuesday, the gap between public polling optimism and internal campaign realism will be resolved at the ballot box. The Talarico campaign’s private acknowledgment of a tight race suggests Democrats are preparing for a nail-biter rather than the comfortable margin some public surveys have suggested.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/31/report-talaricos-own-polls-show-texas-senate-race-tighter-than-democrats-admit/