Michigan’s high-stakes Senate race is effectively a toss-up, according to a new AARP survey that shows Republican nominee Mike Rogers and Democrat nominee Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed separated by a single point among likely voters.
The poll, released this week, puts El-Sayed at 48 percent and Rogers at 47 percent, a statistical dead heat given the survey’s ±3.3 percent margin of error. The findings signal that the battle for Michigan’s open Senate seat could come down to older voters and independent-leaning swing voters.
Older Voters and Swing Seniors Favor Rogers
Among voters aged 50 and older, Rogers holds a comfortable 52 percent to 43 percent lead over El-Sayed. The advantage grows dramatically when focusing on older swing voters—those who do not identify as straight-ticket Republican or Democratic voters. According to the AARP poll, Rogers leads El-Sayed by a commanding 33 points in that critical demographic.
That older-swing-voter gap could prove decisive in November. The survey found that 86 percent of voters aged 50 and older described themselves as “extremely motivated” to vote, compared to 71 percent of those aged 18 to 49.
“When drilling down into older swing voters specifically—the segment of the Michigan electorate who are not straight-ticket Republican or Democratic voters—Rogers enjoys an even wider advantage, leading El-Sayed by 33 points,” the AARP poll noted.
Gubernatorial Race Shows Benson Ahead, but Older Voters Lean James
The same survey examined Michigan’s gubernatorial contest, where Democrat Jocelyn Benson holds a five-point lead over Republican Rep. John James—49 percent to 44 percent among all likely voters.
Among voters aged 50 and older, James edges ahead by one point. However, older swing voters in the gubernatorial race break heavily for Benson, giving her a 28-point lead over James—a reversal of the Senate race’s dynamic.
Overall, the survey suggests older voters, particularly those who are not committed party loyalists, could shape the outcome in both races.
Polling Picture: A Tight Race, but Some Recent Surveys Show Rogers Ahead
The AARP survey is just the latest in a series of polls painting a complex picture of the Michigan Senate contest. A recent Fox News poll found Rogers ahead of El-Sayed by four points, 51 to 47 percent. An EPIC-MIRS poll from late last month also showed Rogers up by three points, 46 to 43 percent.
The differing results may reflect timing and sample differences, but they all point to a race that remains firmly within the margin of error.
Rogers Attacks El-Sayed over 9/11 Comments, Sharia Law Adherence
Rogers, a former FBI agent who has highlighted his role in tracking down Osama bin Laden, has sought to paint El-Sayed as an extremist. In a campaign statement, Rogers said El-Sayed wants to empty prisons and embrace the Muslim Brotherhood, adding: “I spent years hunting terrorists and bringing Osama bin Laden to justice. Never in a million years did I think that I would be running against someone who believes America deserved 9/11.”
That line of attack stems from El-Sayed’s association with Hasan Piker, a prominent progressive streamer who said “America deserved 9/11.” Rather than issuing a direct condemnation, El-Sayed has said Piker’s comments should be viewed in “context.”
Additionally, El-Sayed’s campaign has confirmed that the Democratic nominee still follows Sharia law in his personal life, a fact Rogers has seized upon in his efforts to frame the race around national security and values.
The AARP poll was conducted August 9-11, 2026, among 877 likely Michigan voters and carries a margin of error of ±3.3 percent.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/08/20/poll-mike-rogers-and-abdul-el-sayed-virtually-tied-in-michigan-senate-race/