Germany’s political establishment is reeling after Sunday’s state election in Saxony-Anhalt delivered a bombshell result: the anti-mass-migration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party finished first with 43.8 percent of the vote, securing 39 seats in the state parliament—just four short of a majority.
The result has thrown the state into political turmoil and raised the possibility of a historic coalition between the AfD and a small left-wing populist faction, the Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), a prospect that has sent shockwaves through Berlin and prompted Chancellor Friedrich Merz to vow to use the “instruments” of Germany’s security state to prevent what he called a “right-wing extremist state government.”
A Landmark Victory for the AfD
The AfD’s commanding performance marks a major milestone for the party, which has long been marginalized by mainstream political forces. If it can secure a coalition partner to cross the 43-seat threshold, it would control one of Germany’s 16 federal states for the first time—a significant step toward its national ambitions.
The CDU, the party of Chancellor Merz, crashed to just 17.2 percent, a result widely interpreted as a referendum on his leadership. The SPD and the Greens both scraped by with nine percent each, while other legacy parties fared even worse. With six parties entering the new parliament, the arithmetic is daunting, but the path to an AfD-led government appears narrow and fraught with obstacles.
The Unlikely Alliance: AfD and BSW
Most parties have vowed never to work with the AfD, branding the party as fascist and refusing any cooperation. That leaves the AfD with few options: a coalition with the BSW, a minority government, or fresh elections.
At first glance, a union between the right-wing AfD and the left-leaning BSW might seem improbable. But both parties share key policy positions, particularly on mass migration and relations with Russia. The BSW, an offshoot of the post-communist Die Linke party, advocates for a robust welfare state but argues that open borders undermine its sustainability. Both parties also oppose confrontation with Russia and favor a more conciliatory stance.
These shared views have made both parties pariahs in the eyes of legacy media and established political groups. Yet, they may constitute the basis for an unlikely alliance in Saxony-Anhalt.
Negotiating Tactics and Obstacles
As an opening gambit, the BSW has signaled it might not formally back an AfD government but could use parliamentary procedures to allow AfD’s local leader, Ulrich Siegmund, to become Minister-President without casting a direct vote in his favor. Alternatively, the BSW has floated the idea of supporting a non-partisan figurehead—a tactic reminiscent of Geert Wilders’ failed attempt in the Netherlands.
Siegmund, who embraced the media’s label “the most dangerous man in Germany” during the campaign, has insisted he would only lead a government with a formal and straightforward majority. That stance makes the BSW’s conditional support moot unless a full coalition agreement is reached.
If no deal is struck, Siegmund has indicated he would consider triggering fresh elections—a move that could serve as leverage to pressure potential partners into cooperation, or it could simply reflect a willingness to gamble for an even stronger mandate.
Demographic Dominance by AfD
Analysis by German public broadcaster Tagesschau shows the AfD dominated across virtually every demographic group. While the party traditionally draws support from men and less wealthy families, in this election it won a plurality even among the youngest voters—a group that usually leans left.
The party’s success underscores a broader shift in public sentiment, with many voters rejecting the open-borders policies championed by Chancellor Merkel and continued by her successors.
Establishment Reaction and Security State Threats
The political establishment has reacted with alarm. The Catholic and Protestant churches in Saxony-Anhalt issued a joint statement expressing concern, and one of Germany’s largest trade unions urged all “democratic forces” to freeze the AfD out of power entirely.
Chancellor Merz, visibly shaken by the CDU’s poor showing, addressed the federal executive on Monday. According to German newspaper Bild, he called the result a “dramatic defeat” that has “shaken our party to its core.” He warned against a return to business as usual, emphasizing that the AfD seeks “complete destruction” of the CDU.
More troubling, Merz reportedly pledged to use “all the instruments” in Germany’s “strong constitution” to defend the nation against a right-wing extremist state government. This includes the powers of Germany’s political police, a legacy of post-war and Cold War safeguards designed to protect democracy from anti-democratic forces.
The previous national government already attempted to have the AfD declared “politically unacceptable,” a precursor to a potential ban. In Saxony-Anhalt, the political police have classified the local AfD branch as “confirmed right-wing extremist.” This creates the remarkable situation where the next state government could be led by a party that the current authorities have granted themselves sweeping powers to surveil and infiltrate.
What Lies Ahead
The coming weeks will be crucial as coalition talks get underway. The AfD and BSW may find common ground on migration and Russia, but their ideological differences on economics and social policy remain significant.
Should the AfD ultimately take power in Saxony-Anhalt, it would be a seismic event in German politics—one that could reshape the national landscape ahead of the next federal election. For now, the legacy parties are left to ponder how a party they have tried so hard to marginalize has become the dominant political force in an entire German state.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2026/09/07/bombshell-germany-election-could-result-in-left-right-populist-coalition/