Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration’s endgame with Iran could take one of three forms — internal regime collapse, a popular uprising, or a negotiated agreement — as the U.S. tightens what he described as an unprecedented economic blockade.
Speaking Wednesday on Fox News Channel’s “Special Report,” Bessent laid out the administration’s objectives, Breitbart reported. “The goal here can be one of three states of the world: One, the regime turns on each other. Not impossible. Two, we get some kind of uprising from the Iranian people. They’ve probably killed 50,000 of their own population, so very difficult. And then three, to get the Iranians, if they want to make a deal, to stick to the deal,” he said.
Bessent framed the strategy as a three-stage pressure campaign. “We had six weeks of kinetic activity, we have the blockade, and now we have an effort never seen before, in terms of constricting and cutting off the financial oxygen to them,” he said. “And I don’t know whether it’s going to be a week, a month, or two months, but they are going to yell uncle.”
Three Paths Outlined
Of the three scenarios, Bessent appeared least sanguine about the prospects for a popular revolt, acknowledging the difficulty of mobilizing a population that has faced severe internal repression. At the same time, he did not rule out the possibility that Iran’s leadership could fracture from within.
The third path — a deal — carries its own complications. Bessent noted that Trump had indicated in early August that he did not believe the Iranians were ready to negotiate in good faith. The Treasury secretary referenced a memorandum of understanding attempted on June 3, which was followed weeks later by Iran firing on ships in the Strait of Hormuz, an escalation he described as evidence of bad faith.
“This time, if there is a deal, I guarantee you, they’re going to stick with it,” Bessent said.
An Unprecedented Squeeze
The treasury secretary’s remarks come amid a broad pressure campaign that has combined military action with economic strangulation. The blockade Bessent referenced — aimed at cutting off Iran’s financial lifelines — represents a step beyond traditional sanctions, and he suggested its effects could materialize on a timeline of weeks or months rather than immediately.
Bessent’s public articulation of the administration’s aims is notable for its explicitness. Officials have generally avoided describing the objective in terms of regime change, preferring to emphasize the goal of altering Iran’s behavior. But the treasury secretary’s three-part formulation puts the collapse of the current government and a grassroots uprising on equal footing with a diplomatic settlement as acceptable outcomes.
Context and Questions
The reference to tens of thousands killed — Bessent said the regime has “probably killed 50,000 of their own population” — points to the scale of domestic crackdowns that would make any uprising a costly undertaking. His phrasing suggested that such an outcome, while conceivable, faces steep odds.
The Trump administration has pursued a maximum-pressure approach toward Tehran, and the blockade represents its latest escalation. How long the campaign might last, and what metrics would signal its success, remain open questions. Bessent declined to offer a firm timetable, telling Fox News viewers the moment of capitulation could arrive in weeks or months.
Bessent’s comments also reflect the administration’s frustration with past negotiations. The June 3 MOU, as he described it, was followed by Iranian aggression in the Strait of Hormuz, undermining trust that Tehran would honor any future agreement. That history, he suggested, is why any new deal would come with guarantees of compliance.
For now, the administration appears content to let the economic pressure build, betting that one of the three scenarios Bessent outlined will come to pass. Whether that means division among Iran’s leadership, street-level unrest, or a return to the negotiating table with a chastened Tehran, the treasury secretary made clear the U.S. intends to keep squeezing until one does.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2026/09/23/bessent-iran-goal-can-be-regime-collapse-uprising-or-deal/