Former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich is warning Republicans not to trust Democratic leads in the polls heading into the 2026 midterms, arguing in a social media post Tuesday that the numbers are engineered to keep GOP voters home on Election Day.
“Don’t believe the polls. There will be no blue wave. Once again, fake polling, designed, not to inform but to persuade & suppress turnout, are misleading voters,” Blagojevich wrote on X, according to Breitbart News, which first reported his comments. “I know what I’m talking about. As a twice elected Dem governor and 3 time elected Dem Congressman, I never lost an election.”
Blagojevich, a Democrat who served as Illinois governor from 2003 until his 2009 impeachment and removal, went on to predict Republican victories in several Senate contests that polling currently rates as toss-ups or narrow Democratic leads with less than a month to go before Election Day on November 3.
“Trust the people. They won’t be fooled,” he wrote, forecasting that Sen. Susan Collins wins in Maine, that Texas and Kansas stay in Republican hands, and that Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed loses in Michigan.
What the polling averages show
The picture Blagojevich is pushing back against is one of several tight races where Democrats hold slim advantages. In Maine, longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is facing far-left candidate Troy Jackson. RealClear Polling rates the contest a toss-up and averages recent surveys placing Jackson 0.7 points ahead of the incumbent — a margin well inside any credible sampling error.
In Texas, the Senate race between Attorney General Ken Paxton and state lawmaker James Talarico — a far-left Democrat who has drawn attention for the statement “God is non-binary” — is polling extremely close. RealClear Polling’s average shows Talarico leading by 3.1 points.
Kansas is another state in the spotlight: the Senate race between woke Methodist minister Adam Hamilton and one-term incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) is projected as a close contest. Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932.
One of the cycle’s most closely watched races is in Michigan, where Abdulrahman Mohamed El-Sayed, a socialist Muslim who practices Sharia law in his personal life, is running against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI). Rogers represented a mid-Michigan district for seven terms, worked in the private sector with a focus on cybersecurity, and served as an Army officer and an FBI agent investigating organized crime. RealClear Polling’s averages put El-Sayed 3.6 points ahead of Rogers — close enough to fall within striking distance of the margin of error.
A familiar messenger for a familiar argument
Blagojevich’s claim that public polling can be weaponized to shape turnout rather than measure it is a long-running theme in Republican and conservative media circles, particularly in the final weeks of a campaign when horse-race coverage intensifies. What makes his intervention notable is the messenger: a former Democratic governor and congressman who has spent years rebuilding a public profile after a federal corruption conviction.
His post leans heavily on his own electoral record as evidence of credibility on the subject — a record that ended not at the ballot box but with his removal from office in 2009 and subsequent federal prosecution.
Whether his predictions hold will be settled on November 3. For now, the polling averages he is urging voters to disregard show narrow Democratic leads in Maine, Texas, and Michigan, and a competitive race in a deep-red Kansas that has not elected a Democrat to the Senate in more than nine decades.
This article synthesizes reporting by Breitbart News. Follow Katherine Hamilton on X @thekat_hamilton.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/06/rod-blagojevich-unmasks-fake-polling-favoring-democrats-there-will-be-no-blue-wave/