Consumer Confidence Slips Again as Midterms Approach, Expectations Turn Grim

August's drop in consumer confidence was driven entirely by a worsening outlook for business and jobs, with a partisan split pointing to midterm anxiety.

The Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence reading dipped for a second straight month in August, and the details suggest politics — not the present economy — is weighing on households as the midterm elections draw closer.

The board’s index fell 0.8 points to 89.4, after a downward revision to July’s already-weak number, according to data released Tuesday. The decline was powered entirely by a deterioration in the Expectations Index, which tracks how Americans feel about business conditions, the labor market, and their own incomes six months out. Meanwhile, views of current conditions actually ticked upward, snapping a three-month slide.

“Consumer confidence moderated slightly in August for a second consecutive month,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, in a statement accompanying the release. “The Expectations Index slipped further into negative territory, which was offset by a moderate rise in the Present Situation Index after declining in the past three months.”

Peterson noted that consumers’ assessments of current business conditions were “mildly positive,” and that perceptions of the labor market improved, “reversing three months of moderate decline.” But the forward-looking picture was less rosy: respondents were more pessimistic about business conditions and the labor market over the next six months, even as expectations for household incomes moderated but stayed broadly optimistic.

A political split emerges

The divergence between a brighter present and a gloomier future — combined with a clear partisan pattern — points to an election-driven explanation, according to the report’s authors. Confidence weakened among Republicans and independents in August while improving among Democrats. That alignment is consistent with growing expectations that political power in Washington could soon shift.

Public opinion polls and election forecasts currently suggest Democrats have a credible path to retaking the House of Representatives, with Senate control also competitive. A Democratic majority in either chamber would likely stall further progress on President Donald Trump’s economic agenda, and Republican and independent consumers may increasingly worry that a change in control on Capitol Hill would hurt business conditions, the labor market, and their own household finances.

Labor market views improve despite soft spots

Encouragingly for the White House, the gap between consumers who say jobs are plentiful and those who say jobs are hard to get — a metric economists watch closely for signs of labor market strain — widened to its highest level this year. The share of respondents reporting jobs as plentiful rose in August, while the share saying jobs were hard to get declined. That improvement came even as the report noted a recent uptick in gasoline prices and a loss of jobs in July.

The mixed signals illustrate the crosscurrents facing the economy as Election Day approaches: gas prices are creeping up, hiring took a stumble in July, but households still see a relatively robust job market. The question now is whether the growing pessimism about the future — fueled in part by midterm maneuvering — will start to weigh on spending and economic activity in the months ahead.

Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2026/08/25/consumer-confidence-august-2026/