Days before Democrats reclaimed control of Congress in this week’s midterm elections, Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan penned a hopeful prediction: a Republican defeat would shatter the MAGA movement and create space for a more “healthy” GOP. Instead, The Federalist argues, the results delivered a clear voter rejection of establishment neoconservatism — particularly its appetite for endless foreign wars — while leaving Trump’s populist base intact.
‘Healthy Again’ or Same Old Neocons?
In an October 29 column, Noonan framed a Democratic landslide as necessary medicine for Republicans, claiming it would weaken Trump’s influence and allow “not fully MAGA figures” to reshape the party. She insisted this wouldn’t mean a return to Reagan-Bush era politics, but rather a GOP “for regular people” rather than “resentments.”
But critics point to Noonan’s long opposition to Trump’s insurgent 2016 campaign and his America First foreign policy. Alongside figures like Bill Kristol, she represents a faction that has consistently dismissed Trump’s base while claiming to speak for “the little guy” — even as voters repeatedly reject their preferred candidates.
War Fatigue Drove the Results
The Federalist contends that the election turned primarily on economic pain from an ongoing, unpopular war — one Trump initially claimed would be brief. With gas prices up 40% and supply chains strained, voters punished the party in power despite generally favoring Republicans on issues like immigration.
This backlash targeted the same interventionist policies that fueled Trump’s 2016 rise. Neoconservatives, who enthusiastically supported the war, now hope to steer a “post-Trump” party. But the outlet argues the midterms instead signaled continued hostility toward their foreign policy agenda.
No MAGA Collapse — Just Sticker Shock
While Democrats gained congressional majorities, The Federalist sees little evidence of the MAGA movement’s disintegration that Noonan predicted. Instead, soaring costs — tied directly to wartime disruptions — drove voters toward the opposition party without signaling enthusiasm for a neocon revival.
“The only people who love this war are neocons,” the piece asserts, noting their failed 2016 rebrand. For populist Republicans, the path forward may hinge not on sidelining Trump’s base, but on delivering the fiscal relief and disengagement from foreign quagmires that those voters demanded.
Source: thefederalist.com — https://thefederalist.com/2026/11/04/the-blue-tsunami-isnt-what-neocons-want-it-to-be/