A fresh poll in one of the GOP’s top 2026 pickup targets shows a race that is effectively dead even, with the Democratic incumbent stuck below half support against a first-time Republican challenger.
The SurveyUSA survey, commissioned by KOB 4 and released this week, put Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez at 46 percent and Republican Greg Cunningham at 43 percent among 554 likely voters in New Mexico’s 2nd Congressional District. With a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points, the three-point gap leaves the two candidates in a statistical tie — and Vasquez well short of the 50-percent threshold that usually signals incumbent safety.
Vasquez, who has served two terms, is defending a seat that former President Donald Trump carried in 2024. That same year Vasquez defeated Republican Yvette Herrell by a 52.1 to 47.9 percent margin, while Trump took the district 49.9 to 48.1. Ballotpedia lists the district among 23 Trump-won seats that Democrats are defending this cycle, making it an obvious target for national Republicans.
Coalition Split Mirrors Familiar Lines
The new poll shows the race dividing along predictable demographic lines. Vasquez holds a 13-point lead among women and a 20-point lead among Latino voters, while Cunningham is up 5 points with men and 11 points with white voters.
Cunningham, a Marine combat veteran who later worked as an Albuquerque police detective, is betting he can cut into the Democratic advantage with Hispanic voters. In an interview with Fox News, he argued that “Hispanic culture is at its core a conservative culture” — a message he hopes resonates in a district where Latino voters make up a significant share of the electorate.
Vasquez’s coalition appears to be holding together for now, but the poll’s undecided block — 11 percent of likely voters — could prove decisive in a race this close.
Trump Favorability in the District
The survey also tested Trump’s standing in the district, finding 39 percent view him favorably and 51 percent unfavorably. That 12-point net-negative rating could complicate Cunningham’s effort to nationalize the race around the former president, even as he tries to tie Vasquez to the Biden-Harris record in Washington.
Still, Republicans see an opening. House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned alongside Cunningham in New Mexico last week, and the National Republican Congressional Committee has listed the district among five where its own internal surveys show the party leading or tied within the margin of error.
The NRCC’s confidence is not limited to New Mexico. An NRSC survey released last week showed former Sen. John Sununu ahead by a point in New Hampshire’s Senate race, another sign that Republicans believe the national environment is working in their favor.
Money Gap Favors the Incumbent
One clear advantage for Vasquez is cash. As of June 30, he had raised $3.78 million to Cunningham’s $1.51 million — more than double the Republican’s haul. That gap gives the Democrat the resources to define the race on his own terms, though outside spending from national GOP groups could help close the financial disparity.
For now, the SurveyUSA poll suggests the race is a coin flip, with a large undecided bloc and an incumbent who has yet to crack 50 percent. Whether Cunningham can convert GOP enthusiasm into votes — and whether Vasquez can consolidate the Hispanic and women voters who currently back him — will likely determine which party holds this swing seat come November.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/04/virtual-tie-in-new-mexico-swing-seat-that-gop-seeks-to-flip-from-democrats/