A new poll from The New York Times shows Republican Sen. Susan Collins leading her Democratic challenger in Maine, while Democrats hold a narrower-than-expected edge in Michigan’s Senate race, according to the survey released this week.
The Times polled 619 likely voters across Maine, Michigan, and New Hampshire between September 15 and 22. The results, first reported by Breitbart News, show Collins leading Democrat Troy Jackson 49 to 46 percent in Maine. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 49 to 45 percent. And in New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas is ahead of Republican John Sununu 50 to 45 percent.
Collins’s three-point lead marks a shift from earlier in the cycle. A June poll had shown her trailing the Democrats’ original candidate by two points, 49 to 47 percent. That candidate, Graham Platner, won the primary but was later pushed aside by the Democratic establishment amid sexual abuse scandals. Democrats then installed Jackson, who did not win the primary.
The Times survey is the second recent poll to show Collins ahead. A Quantus Insight poll conducted around the same time found Collins leading by one point, 47 to 46 percent. In the RealClearPolitics average of polls, El-Sayed’s lead in Michigan stands at 2.7 points.
Weighting raises questions
One notable aspect of the Times poll is its weighting. The survey was calibrated to reflect an electorate in which former Vice President Kamala Harris defeated President Trump 52 to 41 percent nationally. In Maine, however, Harris won by only 6.9 points in 2024, and polling there significantly underestimated Trump’s support—pre-election surveys showed Harris leading by margins ranging from nine to 17 points.
In Michigan, the weighting appears even more favorable to Democrats. Trump won the state by 1.4 points in 2024, yet the Times poll assumes a 5.4-point swing toward Democrats for the upcoming midterms. Even with that projected shift, El-Sayed’s lead is just five points. In 2024, Michigan polls underestimated Trump’s support by about two points.
In New Hampshire, the Times poll shows Pappas ahead by five. Trump lost the state by 2.8 points in 2024, while polling there had him trailing by nearly five points.
What the numbers mean
For Collins, hitting 49 percent is a strong position for an incumbent. In her previous reelection campaign, she outperformed the polls by double digits. An incumbent near 50 percent is generally considered to be in good shape, since 50 percent plus one is all that is needed to win—and Collins is a well-known quantity in Maine.
The poll also underscores a broader pattern that has persisted through multiple election cycles: pollsters have consistently underestimated Republican voters, especially in the Trump era. Much of the midterm polling rests on the assumption—reflected in weighting—that many Trump voters will not turn out. Whether that assumption holds will determine whether the Times poll is an outlier or a sign of things to come.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/24/nolte-susan-collins-leads-in-nyt-poll-abdul-el-sayed-up-by-5/