A fresh poll out of Oregon has Republicans buzzing: GOP challenger Christine Drazan holds a 2-point lead over Democratic Gov. Tina Kotek with less than two months until Election Day, according to a new survey from Portland-based DHM Research.
The Sept. 11 poll of 600 likely voters found Drazan at 45% and Kotek at 43%, with Pacific Green Party candidate Brett Smith at 4%. Another 13% of respondents remain undecided. Drazan’s lead falls within the survey’s 4-point margin of error, meaning the race is statistically tight — but the mere fact that a Republican is ahead in Oregon is enough to turn heads.
The poll was commissioned by Grow Oregon, a business-backed group, adding a note of caution for those reading the numbers. Even so, the results give the GOP fresh hope of capturing a governor’s mansion that Democrats have held since 1986.
Drazan campaign sees momentum
Drazan’s campaign strategist, Trey Rosser, told the Oregon Journalism Project the poll merely confirms what he says the campaign is hearing from voters across the state.
“This poll confirms what we already see on the ground: Oregonians are ready for change, and they see Christine as the leader who can deliver it,” Rosser said. “Four years ago, Tina Kotek made big promises on homelessness, housing, education, and affordability, but today, Oregonians are paying more, getting less, and watching the same problems get worse.”
That message appears to be landing, at least according to the survey’s internals. Fifty-nine percent of respondents said they disapprove of Kotek’s job performance, while just 37% approve. Nearly 60% said the state is headed in the wrong direction.
Affordability dominates voter concerns
Oregon voters across the political spectrum are worried about the cost of living. A striking 87% called affordability an “extremely” or “very” important issue. K-12 education followed at 85%, and housing affordability at 78%. Taxes and homelessness each registered at 77%, with crime at 73%.
Despite the heated debate over data centers in the state, that issue ranked lower, with 50% of respondents calling it extremely or very important.
Kotek’s first term has been dogged by controversies, as The Daily Wire has previously reported. In 2024, public records revealed that her administration had explored creating a formal “Office of the First Spouse” for her wife, Aimee Kotek Wilson. Senior staff raised concerns about the proposal, and Kotek abandoned the idea after public scrutiny.
Meanwhile, many of the priorities she campaigned on in 2022 have shown little measurable progress. Kotek pledged to dramatically ramp up housing production, setting a goal of building 36,000 new housing units annually. The state has continued to fall well short of that benchmark, according to The Daily Wire.
History and political gravity
Despite the optimism in GOP circles, Drazan faces steep historical headwinds. Oregon is a reliably blue state, and Kotek defeated Drazan in 2022 by a margin of 47% to 43.5%, while independent candidate Betsy Johnson captured nearly 9% of the vote.
This time, Republicans hope Green Party candidate Brett Smith can peel away some of Portland’s left-wing base — voters angry with the status quo and the Democratic establishment — potentially helping Drazan capitalize on a divided Democratic vote.
That dynamic did not save Drazan four years ago, when Johnson’s independent candidacy split the anti-Kotek vote. Whether Smith’s presence on the ballot this year changes the calculus remains an open question.
The Cook Political Report still rates the Oregon governor’s race as lean Democrat — a reminder that even a favorable poll for Republicans does not guarantee a red wave in a state that has not elected a GOP governor since Vic Atiyeh left office in 1987.
With less than two months to go, both campaigns will be watching for more polling to see whether Drazan’s narrow edge is a blip or the start of a genuine shift in one of the bluest states in the country.
Source: www.dailywire.com — https://www.dailywire.com/news/shock-poll-gop-challenger-edges-dem-governor-in-deep-blue-state