Russian forces have advanced to within seven miles of the key Ukrainian cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, and the long-anticipated assault on the so-called ‘fortress belt’ could begin as soon as December, according to a prominent Ukrainian military analyst.
Oleksandr Kovalenko, a widely followed Ukrainian military commentator known as the ‘Angry Odessan,’ said in a Telegram post that Russian troops captured about 21 square kilometers (13 square miles) of territory in the sector during the third week of August, according to Euromaidan Press, an English-language outlet founded by Ukrainian volunteers.
Kovalenko said Russian forces are ‘advancing in the area of Kalenika, Krivoy Luka (almost completely occupying the village), Nikiforovka, Tikhonovka, approached the outskirts of Nikolaevka and entered Piskunovka.’
‘Now the advanced positions of the [Russians] are 12-13 km from Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, and by the end of August, I think, an intensive infiltration of the enemy into Nikolaevka will begin,’ Kovalenko wrote, as translated by Euromaidan Press. ‘If the enemy’s topics do not decrease, then by the end of 2026, in December, we will see the first infiltrations of [Russian forces] into Slavyansk or Kramatorsk.’
A Bastion Under Pressure
The Sloviansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration has long been described as the anchor of Ukraine’s defensive line in the Donbas, a fortified belt that has held back Russian-backed forces since 2014. Analysts say the two cities form the most important bastion and logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the east, and a threat to them is a threat to the backbone of Ukraine’s defense in the region.
Euromaidan Press, citing Kovalenko, reported that the eastern flank of the agglomeration is taking on ‘an increasingly threatening character’ and that earlier stabilization measures ‘are clearly not working.’
The analyst warned that Ukraine needs to reinforce the area urgently, before it is ‘critically late.’
‘After all, when infiltrations into Slavyansk and Kramatorsk begin, the strengthening of garrisons and the landing of troops by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense will not solve the problem, but will only stretch out the inevitable in time,’ he wrote.
Russian Operations Intensify
Kovalenko’s warnings come as Russian forces step up operations around the two cities. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that its Yug Battlegroup destroyed Ukrainian ‘delivery robots’ attempting to resupply positions in the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk area, according to a post by Sputnik. Video footage posted to social media showed Russian drones operating over Kramatorsk, with reports indicating that Ukrainian vehicles in the city and its approaches are increasingly being detected and struck by drones.
Additional videos, shared by Russian military bloggers, showed artillery and FPV drone operators working in what was described as a coordinated effort to break through Ukrainian defenses in the agglomeration. Russian aircraft, including Su-34 bombers, have also been filmed striking Ukrainian positions in Kramatorsk and nearby Raihorodok using FAB-500, FAB-1500, and FAB-3000 bombs.
What’s at Stake
Slavyansk and Kramatorsk are not just symbolic targets—they are the last major military objective for Russian forces in Donetsk Oblast, according to The Gateway Pundit, which has been covering the developing threat. The cities sit at the heart of a fortified region that has been a linchpin of Ukrainian resistance for over a decade.
Kovalenko’s assessment, delivered by a well-known Ukrainian voice rather than a Russian-friendly source, carries weight, given his reputation for sharp and often ironic commentary on the war. His analysis, published in his Telegram channel, has become a key reference point for those following the frontline situation.
The Gateway Pundit noted that it chose to rely on Kovalenko’s reporting because Ukrainian outlets and analysts have become more reliable at reporting battlefield facts than what it called the ‘Globalist MSM,’ which it accused of promoting a pro-Kiev narrative.
With Russian forces now just miles from the cities, and the analyst predicting possible infiltrations by December, the coming months could prove decisive for the eastern front. Whether the ‘fortress belt’ holds—or cracks—may determine the course of the war in the Donbas.
Source: www.thegatewaypundit.com — https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2026/08/famed-ukrainian-military-analyst-says-russian-forces-are/