Republican Senator Dan Sullivan is expressing confidence in securing reelection as Alaska continues tabulating votes under its ranked choice voting system, with his campaign releasing detailed projections showing a potential 328-vote margin of victory once eliminated ballots are redistributed.
The Numbers Game
Current tallies show Democratic challenger Mary Peltola leading Sullivan by just 626 votes in first-choice preferences, but neither candidate appears likely to clear the 50% threshold needed to avoid ranked choice redistribution. A Sullivan campaign memo obtained by Breitbart claims analysis of voter ranking data reveals their candidate ultimately prevailing when ballots from eliminated candidates Gerald Heikes and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. are reallocated.
“Heikes voters who ranked anyone else break for Dan 71% to 29%, and that round decides the race,” the memo states, projecting Sullivan would defeat Peltola 105,037 to 104,709 if tabulation occurred with current ballots.
Alleged Election Interference
The Sullivan campaign alleges what it calls “the biggest election cheating scandal in the history of Alaska,” accusing Democrats of ballot manipulation by recruiting a liberal activist also named Dan Sullivan to appear on the ballot. The memo claims Peltola was aware of the effort, which they assert created intentional voter confusion in the ranked choice system.
Washington Democrats also reportedly backed a second Republican candidate in the race, potentially splitting conservative votes in initial rounds. Alaska’s Division of Elections has released detailed voter ranking data that the Sullivan team says confirms their path to victory despite the alleged interference.
As vote counting continues, all eyes remain on how Alaska’s unique electoral system will ultimately determine one of the nation’s closest Senate contests.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/11/04/sen-dan-sullivan-projects-confidence-alaska-senate-race/