As the 2026 midterm elections approach, questions about polling accuracy have taken center stage, with a new analysis suggesting that Senate polls in several key states may be significantly off the mark based on historical patterns from the Trump era.
According to an analysis by The Federalist examining five prior federal elections from 2016 to 2024, polling has consistently underestimated or overestimated certain parties’ performance in specific states, sometimes by substantial margins. The findings could have major implications for control of the Senate, which currently hangs in the balance.
The Polling Gap in Competitive States
The analysis focused on 13 states with competitive Senate races in 2026, comparing final RealClearPolitics polling averages from previous Trump-era elections to actual results. The disparities are striking.
New Hampshire stands out as the state where polls have most consistently underestimated Democrats. In 2022, polls predicted Democrat Maggie Hassan would win by 1.4 percentage points, but she actually won by 9.1 pointsâa 7.7-point polling error. Across the Trump era, Senate polls in New Hampshire have undersold Democrats by an average of 3.4 points per election.
Minnesota shows a similar pattern, with Democrats performing an average of 2.3 points better than polls predicted. These are the only two states among the 13 most competitive where Democrats have consistently outperformed expectations.
Where Republicans Beat the Polls
On the Republican side, four states have shown consistent polling underestimation of GOP performance. Maine leads the pack with Republicans faring 4.3 points better than predicted on average, followed by Iowa at 3.6 points, Michigan at 2.5 points, and North Carolina at 1.7 points.
The Maine results are particularly notable given that Republican Senator Susan Collins has historically outperformed polls by approximately eight points in her two most recent races prior to the Trump era as well. Current 2026 polling as of October 26 suggests Collins may lose narrowly, but if historical patterns hold, she could win comfortably.
Three statesâGeorgia, Texas, and Ohioâhave seen relatively accurate polling, with average errors within one point of final margins. However, Texas presents an unpredictable scenario, as polls have been off by more than three points in every Senate election during the Trump era, but not consistently in the same direction.
What This Means for Senate Control
When the analysis adjusts current RealClearPolitics averages to account for historical polling errors in each state, the picture of the Senate race becomes more complex. Three races that appeared competitiveâNew Hampshire, Georgia, and North Carolinaâappear to be safely headed to the Democratic column.
That leaves 10 genuinely competitive races where control of the Senate will be decided. Democrats need to win five of these races to take control, while Republicans need six to maintain their majority.
As of October 26, Republicans hold the lead in six races when historical polling errors are factored in, but in two of those states, the lead is less than one percentage point. This puts control of the Senate firmly in toss-up territory.
The Wild Cards
Several states present particular challenges for prediction. Alaska has seen little polling both in current and past elections, making it difficult to assess accuracy trends. In Michigan, the Democratic primary winner Abdulrahman El-Sayed performed notably worse than polls predicted during the primary, suggesting potential issues with current general election polling there as well.
Ohio presents a different scenarioâpolling there has been quite accurate historically, always within 2.5 points of the final margin in either direction. This makes the Democrats’ current lead in Ohio polling potentially more reliable than in most other states.
Kansas, Nebraska, and South Carolina haven’t had enough competitive polling in prior Trump-era Senate races to draw firm conclusions, though the limited polling that has occurred generally underestimated Republican performance.
The Path Forward
The analysis suggests that if Trump-era polling trends continue, control of the Senate will likely hinge on results in Texas and Michigan, along with the heavily Republican states of Alaska and Kansas where polling provides limited guidance.
Republicans will probably need to win in two of those four states to avoid ceding Senate control to Democrats. If they lose in Maine, they would need to win three of the four.
The stakes are particularly high because polling appears close in so many states simultaneously, and because some states like Maine show a wide range of possible outcomes depending on whether historical polling errors repeat themselves.
The fundamental question remains whether the systematic polling errors observed throughout the Trump era will continue in 2026. In states like New Hampshire, Minnesota, Michigan, and Iowa, the errors have persisted in the same direction and by similar margins across multiple election cycles. Whether pollsters have adjusted their methodologies to account for these patternsâor whether the underlying factors causing the errors persistâwill determine whether the current polls accurately reflect the state of the races or whether significant surprises await on election night.
Source: thefederalist.com â https://thefederalist.com/2026/10/28/what-the-midterm-senate-polls-wont-tell-you-and-where-they-might-be-wrong/