Spain’s upcoming snap election appears all but decided following last week’s deadly train accident, with a new poll showing the ruling Socialist government facing a 96 percent chance of losing power to a right-wing coalition.
The survey, conducted by polling firm SocioMétrica and published Sunday by Spanish outlet El Español, marks the first major poll released since the tragic October 28 train collision in Urda, Toledo, which claimed 69 lives and left several others injured. The disaster has emerged as a potentially decisive factor in an election already trending against Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and his Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE).
Right-Wing Coalition Virtually Assured Victory
According to the poll, if voting took place this week, a coalition between the center-right People’s Party (PP) and the anti-mass migration VOX party would have a “100 percent” chance of securing an absolute majority of parliamentary seats needed to form a government.
The numbers paint a stark picture for the Socialists. The PP is projected to win 137 seats in the Congress of Deputies, while VOX is expected to capture 64 seats. When combined with the two projected seats from the Navarrese People’s Union’s alliance with the People’s Party in Navarre (UPN-PP), the right-wing bloc would control a projected 203 seats — well beyond the 176 deputies required to form a government.
That total falls just short of the 210-seat three-fifths supermajority needed to advance constitutional changes and certain other legislative powers, but represents a commanding position nonetheless.
Tragedy Shifts Already Unfavorable Landscape
The poll reveals that the Urda train disaster has accelerated an already negative trajectory for Spain’s ruling party. Before the tragedy, the same pollster had projected the PP-VOX-UPN alliance would secure 200 seats. The post-tragedy projection of 203 seats represents a three-seat improvement for the right-wing coalition.
For the Socialists, the outlook has deteriorated sharply. The PSOE is now projected to secure just 106 seats, a drop of 15 seats compared to the 121 it won in the 2023 elections. The entire ruling leftist coalition is projected to obtain only 145 seats following last week’s tragedy — far short of the threshold needed to keep the Sánchez administration in power.
The polling firm reportedly ran multiple election simulations based on its latest survey data. Across all scenarios, the PSOE has just a 4 percent chance of forming a new coalition government, compared to a 96 percent probability of a PP-led government in coalition with VOX.
Nation Still Mourning Train Collision Victims
Spain continues to grapple with the aftermath of the October 28 train collision in Urda. As of Monday morning, authorities had identified 66 of the 69 fatal victims. Among those identified, 54 were Spanish nationals and 12 were foreign citizens from various countries. Several injured passengers remain hospitalized.
The tragedy occurred just over three weeks after Prime Minister Sánchez called the snap election on October 5, setting the voting date for November 29. The timing has proven particularly damaging for the Socialist government, with the disaster appearing to crystallize voter discontent that was already brewing.
Historical Context and Coalition Math
The current political situation echoes Spain’s 2023 election, when the PP secured 171 deputy seats — five short of the 176 required for a majority. That narrow deficit allowed Sánchez and the PSOE to cling to power by assembling a coalition with smaller leftist parties.
This time around, the poll suggests no such mathematical rescue is available for the Socialists. The projected 145 seats for the entire leftist coalition would leave them well short of the governing threshold, even accounting for potential support from minor parties.
Right-Wing Parties Coordinate Strategy
The poll’s release comes on the heels of a strategic agreement between VOX and the People’s Party announced in recent days. Under the deal, the two parties will not run competing candidates against each other in several Senate races across Spain.
The move is designed to further diminish the chances of a PSOE-led majority in the Upper House and to block the advancement of far-left political actors in Spanish government institutions. The coordination suggests both parties are already looking beyond the election to governing arrangements.
SocioMétrica’s survey also found that the People’s Party is projected to be the most-voted group in the Spanish exclaves of Ceuta and Melilla. Ceuta has particular political significance at this moment, having just entered its third month of what has been described as an ongoing mass migrant invasion.
Election Three Weeks Away
With the November 29 election now less than a month away, the poll numbers suggest Prime Minister Sánchez faces an uphill battle to reverse his party’s fortunes. The Socialist government must not only overcome existing political headwinds but also navigate the fallout from a national tragedy that has gripped the country.
Whether the next three weeks bring additional developments that could shift the electoral landscape remains to be seen. But as it stands, the SocioMétrica poll portrays a Spanish electorate poised to deliver a decisive victory to the right-wing coalition and end the current Socialist-led government’s tenure in power.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2026/11/02/poll-urda-train-tragedy-dents-spanish-socialists-chances-in-upcoming-snap-election/