Two surveys of Alaska’s U.S. Senate race released on the same day paint sharply different pictures of the contest, with one showing former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola ahead of Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan and the other putting the incumbent on top. The competing results, first reported by Breitbart News, suggest the race could hinge on Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system when ballots are counted.
Two Polls, Two Leaders
An AARP Voter Survey conducted by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research found Peltola leading Sullivan 46 percent to 41 percent in the initial count. Once ranked-choice allocations were applied, Peltola’s advantage widened to 53 percent to 47 percent.
A separate Co/Efficient poll, also released Thursday, produced the opposite result: Sullivan ahead of Peltola 49 percent to 46 percent. The discrepancy between the two surveys leaves the race’s true shape unsettled as the general election approaches, though both sets of numbers fall within territory that would make the contest competitive.
Sullivan’s favorability in the Co/Efficient survey came in at 46 percent positive versus 45 percent negative, while Peltola was viewed favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by 47 percent, according to that poll. The AARP survey showed a different dynamic among independents, who broke toward Peltola — with her largest advantage appearing in a head-to-head matchup against Sullivan.
The AARP poll also found Alaska Democrats carrying twice the disapproval burden of Republicans statewide, registering at -14 points compared with -7 for the GOP.
Ranked-Choice Voting in the Spotlight
Alaska voters approved ranked-choice voting in 2020, a change championed by a group called Alaskans for Better Elections and funded by a Denver-based nonprofit that supports electoral reform efforts. Critics, including the Breitbart report, describe the system as benefiting left-leaning candidates and note that it was advanced with backing from left-wing dark money groups.
Under the system, voters rank candidates in order of preference, and if no one clears a majority in the first round, the lowest finishers are eliminated and their supporters’ second choices are reallocated. That process proved decisive in the AARP poll, where Peltola’s lead grew from five points to six after allocations.
Ballot Complications and Primary Fallout
Republicans occupy three of the four slots on the general election ballot, an outcome the Breitbart report attributes to what it describes as Democratic manipulation of the state’s primary process.
One of those ballot positions is held by a left-wing activist who shares the same name as the two-term senator. In comments to the New York Times, the man said he voted for the Democratic nominee in each of the last three presidential elections and did not support the senator in his prior two campaigns. He also said he backed Peltola in her 2022 and 2024 U.S. House races and has donated to her and other Democrats.
The same-name candidate’s presence on the ballot has drawn scrutiny over whether it could confuse voters navigating a ranked-choice system.
Peltola’s Record Under Scrutiny
Before entering the Senate race, Peltola and her chief of staff took positions at a lobbying firm following her two terms in Congress, according to the report. During her time in the U.S. House, she missed 40 percent of votes at one point in the summer of 2024 — an absence rate that prompted some Alaska voters to question her priorities in representing the state.
The competing poll results and the state’s unique voting mechanics mean the race remains difficult to forecast. With one survey showing a four-point Peltola lead and another showing a three-point Sullivan lead, both campaigns have reason to see the contest as fluid heading into the fall.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/17/alaska-polls-offer-split-picture-on-senate-race/