A new Iowa poll shows the state’s Senate race between Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek locked in a tight contest, with Hinson holding a lead of just over a single percentage point.
The Quantus Insights survey, first reported by Breitbart News, puts Hinson at 47.1 percent support to Turek’s 45.8 percent — a gap of 1.3 percentage points. Libertarian candidate Thomas Laehn draws 1.7 percent, while 5.4 percent of voters remain undecided, a bloc the pollster notes is more than large enough to shift the outcome in either direction.
Quantus described the race as “closely divided,” a characterization that holds up even when the survey tests different ways of framing the choice. When undecided voters who lean toward a candidate are folded into the totals, Hinson’s edge grows slightly to 48.5 percent over Turek’s 46.6 percent. In a separate head-to-head question naming only the two major-party candidates, Hinson sits at 48.9 percent and Turek at 46.7 percent — a margin that remains within the poll’s margin of error.
Independents and Women Break Toward Turek
Digging into the demographic breakdown, Quantus found Turek performing strongly with two key groups, even as Hinson maintains an overall lead. Independents favor the Democrat by a 17-point margin, with another nine percent of independent voters still undecided. Turek, who has been backed by former President Barack Obama, also enjoys a 12-point advantage among women, while Hinson counters with a 10-point lead among men.
The generational split is even more pronounced. Voters aged 18 to 29 support Turek by 21 points. The two candidates are tied among those aged 30 to 44. Hinson leads by eight points among voters 45 to 68 and by three points among those 65 and older.
“Turek’s strength among women and independents offsets Hinson’s rural advantage, leaving Iowa’s Senate race closely divided,” Quantus Insights concluded.
The survey was conducted September 28–29, 2026, among 714 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
A Contrast With September’s Emerson Poll
The Quantus results land alongside a separate Iowa survey from Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media released in September, which showed Hinson ahead by a wider five-point margin. In that poll, Hinson took 50 percent support among likely voters, with Turek at 45 percent and five percent undecided.
Emerson noted at the time that its numbers reflected a two-point gain for Hinson compared with a month earlier. In August, the same pollster had Hinson at 48 percent to Turek’s 45 percent, with six percent undecided — a three-point lead that expanded to five points by September.
Meanwhile, the RealClearPolling average of Iowa Senate surveys shows Turek ahead by less than half a percentage point, a figure that underscores just how unsettled the race remains.
Border Politics Take Center Stage
Hinson, a sitting U.S. representative, has drawn a sharp contrast with her Democratic opponent on immigration, listing border security as a top priority. She has called for stricter enforcement of the country’s immigration laws and for the deportation of what she describes as “dangerous criminal illegal immigrants.”
Turek, a current state representative, has a record of supporting taxpayer-funded welfare for undocumented immigrants, though he has sought to put distance between himself and that record during the campaign.
The candidates’ divergent positions on the border mirror a broader national divide that has shaped Senate races across the country this cycle. With just over a month until Election Day, the polls suggest Iowa voters have yet to settle on a clear favorite — and that a small slice of undecided and third-party-leaning voters could ultimately decide who represents the state in the U.S. Senate.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/01/poll-iowa-senate-race-between-republican-ashley-hinson-and-democrat-josh-turek-closely-divided/