Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holds a one-point lead over Democratic State Rep. James Talarico in the state’s high-stakes U.S. Senate race, according to a new InsiderAdvantage survey released Thursday and reported by Breitbart News. The poll shows Paxton at 49 percent to Talarico’s 48 percent, with less than a month remaining before election day.
The survey of 1,200 likely voters carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. InsiderAdvantage had not released cross tabs offering a demographic breakdown as of Thursday evening, leaving the one-point gap within the poll’s stated error range.
It is the second poll in a week to show Paxton eking past Talarico — an outcome that would have seemed unlikely earlier in the cycle, when the race was rated as leaning Republican. Cook Political Report has since moved the contest to “toss-up” status after shifting its rating in August.
A Pattern Across Two Polls
Tuesday’s Quantus Insights poll put the two candidates in a near-tie, with Paxton at 47.2 percent and Talarico at 46.7 percent. That survey suggested Paxton’s narrow advantage stems from a dynamic Breitbart News reported on in August: Talarico has already maxed out his support among the state’s Democratic voters, leaving him little room to grow his coalition.
Quantus found Talarico leading among independent voters by 15 points, 52 percent to 37 percent. But Paxton’s slow, steady gains among the Republican voters who dominate Texas continue to position him to claim the seat, according to Breitbart’s Matt Mercer.
Not every measure tells the same story. RealClearPolling’s average of recent surveys shows Talarico ahead by 2.3 percentage points — a lead that sits within the margins of error of the individual polls making up that average. The divergence between the averaging site and the two most recent single polls highlights how tight the contest remains as it enters its final stretch.
Talarico’s Absence Draws Scrutiny
The InsiderAdvantage release lands as Talarico faces criticism over a nearly two-week absence from the campaign trail at a moment when candidates typically intensify their schedules. The source article characterizes that absence as a vulnerability for the Democrat in the final action-packed stretch before election day.
Talarico has also drawn attention for a viral remark that he described God as non-binary — a comment Republicans have seized on in a state where faith plays a prominent role in politics.
Record Spending Floods the State
The race has become the most expensive contest of the 2026 midterm cycle, and Republican-aligned groups are spending heavily to keep the seat in GOP hands. On October 1, Axios reported that the Senate Leadership Fund-aligned Texas PAC spent $131 million in September alone, with tens of millions more expected to flow into the state during October.
That level of outside spending reflects both the stakes of the seat and the unusual competitiveness of a Texas statewide race. Republicans have not faced a serious threat to a Senate seat in Texas in years, and the prospect of losing one in a midterm cycle would complicate the party’s national math.
Early Voting Begins Monday
Texas will open early in-person voting on Monday, October 19, giving voters their first chance to cast ballots in the race. With the two most recent polls separated by roughly a point and the polling average pointing the other direction, the outcome is likely to remain uncertain until votes are counted.
The InsiderAdvantage survey is the latest snapshot in a contest that has drawn national attention and record sums of money. Whether Paxton’s narrow leads in individual polls translate into a durable advantage — or whether Talarico’s ground game and standing among independents close the gap — will become clearer once early ballots start being cast next week.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/15/poll-shows-ken-paxton-narrowly-leading-james-talarico-texas-senate-race/