The American University professor who famously missed the mark on the 2024 presidential election is making another bold prediction just days before voters head to the polls for the midterm elections.
Allan Lichtman, a historian who has built a reputation on his election forecasting model, is now projecting that Democrats will capture control of both the U.S. House and Senate on Tuesday, according to the Daily Mail. The prediction comes despite Lichtman’s high-profile failure to accurately call President Donald Trump’s defeat of former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024.
A New Forecast Based on Trump’s Approval Numbers
In an interview with The Times, Lichtman pointed to President Trump’s approval ratings as the foundation for his latest projection. The professor offered a statistical framework rather than calling it a formal prediction.
“When the approval rating for a president is as low as Trump’s, on average the White House party loses 40 House and six Senate seats,” Lichtman told the outlet. “It’s not a prediction, that’s just showing how heavily the winds are blowing against Republicans.”
The historian also cited generic congressional ballot polling, where Democrats currently lead Republicans by seven to 11 points. Lichtman considers these broader polls more reliable indicators than surveys of individual races.
During a separate interview with Hromadske Int., Lichtman expressed even greater confidence in Democratic chances for the House while acknowledging Senate control presents more challenges.
“It’s almost certain, 90 percent plus, that Democrats will take over the House,” he claimed. “The Senate is more difficult because Democrats have to win quite a few seats, four or five seats, in deep red states. That’s certainly possible but it’s difficult.”
The 2024 Miscalculation and Its Aftermath
Lichtman’s credibility took a significant hit following the 2024 presidential election. The professor, who has claimed accuracy in predicting presidential races since 1984, based his Harris prediction on what turned out to be three flawed assumptions, according to Breitbart News reporting from months before the election.
First, Lichtman argued the Biden-Harris administration presided over a successful economy, despite average cost increases of approximately 20 percent across various sectors. Second, he characterized their foreign policy as successful, even as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continued, Hamas held hostages in Gaza, and questions lingered about the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. Third, he claimed there was no sustained social unrest during the term, overlooking ongoing pro-Palestinian protests on college campuses.
Critics have long questioned Lichtman’s methodology, arguing that many of the “keys” in his predictive model remain open to interpretation and can be adjusted to fit whatever outcome ultimately occurs.
After Harris’s defeat, Lichtman attributed his incorrect forecast to what he called conservative media “disinformation” and pointed to billionaire Elon Musk’s influence on the election.
New Enthusiasm Metrics
In his recent Times interview, Lichtman offered additional analysis about voter turnout patterns that could favor Democrats in the upcoming midterms.
“Usually Republicans turn out at a higher rate but this time it looks like the Democratic enthusiasm is higher,” the professor said.
This assessment comes as political observers have noted the Democratic Party’s continued shift toward more progressive positions on various policy issues.
Republican Response
House Speaker Mike Johnson highlighted what he characterized as the Democratic Party’s “radical leftist agenda” in a social media post Thursday.
“They’re telling us what they’re about. It’s CRAZY!” the Louisiana Republican wrote.
The exchange reflects the broader narrative Republicans are pushing heading into Tuesday’s elections, portraying Democrats as increasingly disconnected from mainstream American voters.
Stakes for Tuesday
The midterm elections carry significant implications for the remainder of Trump’s term. Control of the House would determine which party sets the legislative agenda and chairs powerful committees with subpoena power and investigative authority. Senate control would affect judicial confirmations and Cabinet appointments.
Lichtman’s track record will face another test when results come in. For a professor whose reputation rests on his predictive model, another miss could further damage the credibility of his methodology. Conversely, an accurate call would provide some redemption after the 2024 miscalculation.
The historical data Lichtman cites about presidential approval ratings and midterm losses has shown patterns over decades, though individual elections can defy historical trends. Trump’s first presidency saw Republicans lose House control in the 2018 midterms when his approval ratings faced similar challenges.
Voters will deliver their verdict Tuesday, providing the ultimate test of whether Lichtman’s model can recover from its 2024 failure or whether the professor’s forecasting reputation will take another hit.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/10/30/professor-who-inaccurately-predicted-kamala-harris-would-defeat-trump-predicts-democrats-will-win-midterms/