Republican Kurt Alme holds a commanding lead in Montana’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new Quantus Insights poll of likely voters released exclusively to Breitbart News. The survey, conducted September 14-15, shows Alme with 43.6 percent support, nearly 20 points ahead of his nearest competitor.
Independent candidate Seth Bodnar sits at 24.3 percent, while Democrat Alani Bankhead trails closely at 23.1 percent. Another 7.2 percent of those surveyed remain undecided, and 1.7 percent said they would vote for someone else. The poll of 625 likely voters carries a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, making Alme’s 19.3-point advantage over Bodnar statistically significant.
Support Across Gender Lines
Alme leads among both men and women. He takes 47.3 percent of male voters compared to Bodnar’s 25.7 percent, and 40.3 percent of female voters against Bodnar’s 23.2 percent. The one demographic where Bodnar edges ahead is independents, where he draws 40.3 percent to Alme’s 34.8 percent.
Most voters appear to have made up their minds. Among the 569 respondents asked about their certainty, 81.7 percent said they had definitely decided on a candidate, while 15.4 percent said they could still change their mind and 2.9 percent remained unsure.
Favorability Ratings
Alme’s net favorability stands at plus-9.5 points, with 48.4 percent viewing him favorably and 38.9 percent unfavorably. Bodnar is more evenly split, with 43.5 percent favorable and 41.8 percent unfavorable. Bankhead faces the toughest headwinds on this measure: just 32.7 percent view her favorably, while 44 percent see her unfavorably.
The survey is the latest in a series of polls showing Alme ahead, though the margins have varied. A GrayHouse survey cited by Breitbart News in July had Alme at 41 percent, Bankhead at 25 percent, and Bodnar at 17 percent. A separate poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee around the same time put Alme at 45 percent, Bankhead at 30 percent, and Bodnar at 15 percent.
ActBlue Controversy
The new poll comes amid an ongoing dispute over Bodnar’s fundraising and political affiliation. Breitbart News reported in August that Alme called on Bodnar to return the $1.76 million his campaign had raised through ActBlue, the Democratic donation platform, arguing that the independent candidate was concealing his true political leanings.
“Seth Bodnar wants to hide who he really is while his campaign runs on liberal ActBlue cash,” Alme told Breitbart News at the time, calling Bodnar a “far-left Democrat in disguise” and pointing to his positions on taxes, immigration, transgender athletes, policing, and DEI.
Federal Election Commission filings cited in that report showed Bodnar had raised more than $3.2 million through June 30, with roughly half of his contributions coming through ActBlue. Breitbart News also reported that Bodnar had previously registered as a Democrat in Connecticut, donated to Democratic candidates, attended a 2012 presidential debate with Michelle Obama, and staffed his campaign with Democrats.
The poll’s release signals that the race remains fluid heading into the fall, with Alme maintaining a strong position but a sizable share of voters still open to persuasion. Both Bodnar and Bankhead will need to consolidate support among the 7.2 percent of undecided voters and peel away some of Alme’s backing to close the gap.
Montana’s Senate contest is one of several key races that will determine the balance of power in Washington. With Alme’s double-digit lead in this latest survey, Republicans have reason for optimism, though the poll’s margin of error and the presence of two non-Republican candidates could complicate the final stretch.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/17/exclusive-poll-republican-kurt-alme-holds-19-point-lead-montana-senate-race/