Georgia’s two marquee statewide contests are telling very different stories less than two months out, according to new polling released this week. Sen. Jon Ossoff, the Democratic incumbent, holds a double-digit advantage over Republican Rep. Mike Collins in the U.S. Senate race, while the governor’s race between Republican Rick Jackson and Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms remains effectively tied, Breitbart News reported.
The YouGov survey, conducted Sept. 15-18 among 3,447 registered Georgia voters, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points. It lands at a moment when Georgia is once again positioned as one of the country’s premier battlegrounds, with control of the Senate potentially hinging on the outcome.
Ossoff’s Double-Digit Edge
In the head-to-head Senate matchup, Ossoff leads Collins 51 percent to 41 percent among registered voters — a 10-point gap that would represent a comfortable margin in a state that has routinely decided federal races by a fraction of a point.
The race tightens somewhat when the sample is narrowed to what the pollster describes as “strict likely voters.” Among that group, Ossoff’s lead shrinks to 51 percent to 43 percent, an eight-point advantage. Roughly 6 percent of all respondents said they were undecided, dropping to 5 percent among strict likely voters.
Collins, who represents Georgia’s 10th Congressional District and owns a trucking company, is a two-term House Republican. The source material notes that during his time in Congress, President Donald Trump signed the Laken Riley Act — a legislative win Collins has pointed to in his Senate bid.
Where the Senate Vote Splits
The demographic breakdown of the Senate race follows patterns familiar to Georgia politics. Ossoff runs up commanding margins with younger voters, taking 67 percent of those aged 18-29 compared with Collins’s 24 percent, and 58 percent of voters aged 30-44 versus 32 percent for Collins. The 45-64 bracket is nearly even, with Ossoff at 47 percent and Collins at 46 percent.
Collins’s strongest support comes from the oldest cohort in the survey, voters 65 and older, whom he wins 52 percent to 42 percent.
By race, Ossoff captures Black voters by an overwhelming 83 percent to 11 percent margin, while Collins leads among white voters 57 percent to 35 percent.
Outside the survey itself, the broader polling picture still favors the incumbent. RealClear Polling rates the contest a “toss-up,” but its polling average shows Ossoff ahead by an average projected margin of 7.5 points. Ossoff had previously been described as the “most vulnerable” Democrat seeking reelection, and he is widely believed to harbor ambitions of a 2028 presidential run — a dynamic that adds another layer of intrigue to a race already expected to be extremely tight.
The Senate contest could ultimately determine which party holds the majority during the second half of Trump’s second term, raising the stakes well beyond Georgia’s borders.
A One-Point Governor’s Race
Down the ballot, the governor’s race is a different animal entirely. Jackson, a billionaire healthcare executive, leads Bottoms — the former Atlanta mayor — 45 percent to 44 percent among registered voters, a single-point margin well within the survey’s error range.
Among strict likely voters, that sliver widens modestly to 47 percent to 44 percent, a three-point Jackson edge. About 9 percent of voters in the governor’s race remain undecided, a larger bloc than in the Senate contest and one that could prove decisive given how closely the two candidates are matched.
The generational divide in the governor’s race is stark. Bottoms dominates among the youngest voters, leading 55 percent to 33 percent among those aged 18-29 and 51 percent to 33 percent among those aged 30-44. Jackson flips the script with older voters, carrying the 45-64 bracket 50 percent to 41 percent and voters 65 and above by a commanding 56 percent to 33 percent.
As in the Senate race, the racial breakdown is lopsided: Bottoms leads with Black voters 76 percent to 11 percent, while Jackson holds a wide advantage among white voters at 62 percent to 27 percent.
RealClear Polling likewise rates the governor’s race a “toss-up,” with its polling average showing Jackson ahead by a projected 0.4 points — a margin that, for practical purposes, amounts to a coin flip.
What the Numbers Signal
Taken together, the two races suggest Georgia voters may be prepared to split their tickets in 2026, a pattern the state has shown a willingness to embrace in past cycles. Ossoff’s apparent strength at the top of the ticket does not appear to be carrying Bottoms to a comparable lead in the governor’s race, at least not in this survey.
Both contests remain rated as toss-ups by RealClear Polling, a reminder that polling averages this far from Election Day can shift considerably. The Senate race in particular has drawn national attention given the possibility that it decides Senate control, while the governor’s race offers Republicans a chance to hold a seat in a state that has become a perennial battleground.
With roughly six weeks until voters head to the polls, the YouGov findings offer a snapshot rather than a verdict — one that shows a Democratic senator with breathing room and a governor’s race balanced on a knife’s edge.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2026/09/24/poll-jon-ossoff-leads-mike-collins-in-georgia-senate-race-jackson-and-bottoms-in-dead-heat/