Skyrocketing gas prices have a simple explanation in most political messaging: the war in Iran. But a new analysis from The Daily Wire argues that this conventional wisdom, while not entirely wrong, is dangerously incomplete — and that the real story is far worse.
According to the outlet, the world may be approaching what analysts at major financial institutions, including JPMorgan, describe as the operational floor of the global energy system. In a worst-case scenario, that could mean pipelines losing pressure, refineries shutting down to protect equipment, and gas stations running dry. The report notes that fuel infrastructure needs a minimum amount of fuel to function — much like a body needs a minimum volume of blood. That buffer, it warns, is now at risk.
The Ukraine Factor
The Daily Wire points to a different culprit than the Iran war: Ukraine’s long-running campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure. According to the report, Ukraine has reportedly taken out roughly one-third of Russia’s refining capacity, prompting Moscow to ban foreign sales of its diesel. Since Russia was the world’s second-largest diesel exporter, that loss has sent shockwaves through global markets.
The result: diesel prices have hit record highs, exceeding $6 a gallon. That matters for consumers in two ways. First, nearly everything purchased in stores — from groceries to Amazon packages — travels at some point by semi-truck, cargo ship, or freight train, all of which run on diesel. When diesel costs rise, those costs get passed on. Second, refineries outside Russia are now "yield switching" to diesel to capture higher profits, meaning they refine less regular gasoline. According to Goldman Sachs, the diesel-to-gasoline price spread in the U.S. has ballooned to over $60 per barrel, up from just $3 a barrel a year ago. With refineries already at full capacity, any shift toward diesel means less gasoline — and global gasoline exports have dropped 24% in the past year.
The Daily Wire notes that demand for gasoline hasn’t fallen; in Russia, it’s actually risen because so many refineries have been damaged.
Against that backdrop, the outlet says a potential diplomatic breakthrough emerged last week. President Trump posted on Truth Social that "Ukraine has agreed not to hit Russian Energy targets. Russia has agreed to do, likewise!" If true, that would be significant: allowing the world’s number-two diesel exporter to resume normal refining would ease pressure on American consumers.
But the report says Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky contradicted that account. Speaking to reporters, Zelensky said there was "a strong U.S. proposal for a mutual halt to strikes on critical infrastructure," adding that Ukraine was ready to support de-escalation — but only if Russia stopped bombing Ukrainian infrastructure in return. Six days later, according to The Daily Wire, Zelensky posted footage of burning Russian refineries and bragged about the strikes on social media, signaling he had abandoned the plan and doubled down on the strategy.
A Warning From Europe
The analysis also points to Europe as a cautionary tale. It notes that Germany shut down all its nuclear plants in favor of renewables, and around the same time, firewood became so scarce that prices doubled and loggers resorted to GPS trackers to combat theft. In Poland, people reportedly queued for days outside coal mines. The Daily Wire cites a statistic that more than 360,000 Europeans die annually from cold-related excess mortality — more than eight times the number who die from heat. By contrast, the U.S. sees roughly 1,000 hypothermia deaths per year, with even liberal estimates linking only about 40,000 American deaths annually to cold in some tangential way.
The outlet uses those figures to argue that Europe, not America, faces a hidden danger — and warns that if current energy trends continue, the U.S. could find itself in a similar position. The report frames the coming crisis not as a purely economic challenge but as a physics problem, one that won’t be solved by policy tweaks alone.
Source: www.dailywire.com — https://www.dailywire.com/news/gas-prices-are-out-of-control-heres-what-no-one-is-telling-you