A new Rasmussen Reports survey shows that support for stricter gun control laws has declined among likely U.S. voters, even as the Supreme Court prepares to hear a major case on assault-style weapon bans.
The poll, conducted August 13 and 16-17, 2026, found that 48% of likely voters believe the United States needs stricter gun control laws—down from 51% in October 2024. The three-point drop comes amid an ongoing national debate over firearm regulations and a pending Supreme Court decision that could reshape the legal landscape for semi-automatic rifles.
Voters less enthusiastic about semi-auto bans
The survey also revealed that 46% of likely voters say they would support a congressional candidate who promised to completely ban semi-automatic and assault-type weapons—a figure that trails overall gun control support by two points. The data suggests that while a plurality of voters favor stricter laws in general, a narrower share backs the most aggressive prohibition measures.
Supreme Court to decide AR-15 case
Adding urgency to the polling, the Supreme Court of the United States has agreed to hear a case focused on banning “assault style weapons,” with a decision expected by early summer 2027. According to SCOTUSblog, the case will determine “whether the Second and 14th Amendments guarantee the right to possess AR-15 platform and similar semiautomatic rifles.”
If the Court rules that the Second and 14th Amendments do protect such possession, efforts to ban AR-15s and similar rifles would effectively become moot, rendering the policy debate largely symbolic at the federal level—though state-level restrictions could still face legal challenges.
The Rasmussen poll was published August 25, 2026, and its findings arrive at a moment when gun control advocates have been pressing for stricter federal laws. The decline in support may reflect shifting public sentiment or increased attention to constitutional arguments, though the survey did not specify reasons for the change.
Rasmussen Reports is a well-known polling firm that regularly surveys likely voters on political and policy issues. The latest numbers come after a period of intense public discussion about firearm policy, including mass shooting incidents and legislative efforts in various states.
The Supreme Court’s upcoming decision will be closely watched by both gun rights and gun control groups, as it has the potential to set a national precedent on the legality of bans on popular semi-automatic rifles. Legal experts have noted that the Court’s conservative majority has historically been sympathetic to Second Amendment claims, but the case’s outcome remains uncertain.
For now, the polling suggests that while a plurality of Americans still want stricter gun laws, the appetite for outright bans on semi-automatic weapons is waning. The gap between general gun control support and specific ban support may indicate that voters are more comfortable with incremental measures—such as background checks or red flag laws—rather than sweeping prohibitions.
The survey’s margin of error was not detailed in the source material, but Rasmussen Reports typically uses a sample size of around 1,000 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
As the Supreme Court case proceeds, both sides are likely to cite the latest polling in their arguments. Gun rights advocates may point to the drop in support for bans as evidence that the public is moving away from restrictive measures. Conversely, gun control proponents may emphasize that nearly half of voters still favor stricter laws, suggesting continued political viability for reform efforts.
The decision, when it comes, could have far-reaching implications for gun policy across the country, potentially invalidating state-level bans in Maryland, California, New York, and other jurisdictions that have enacted restrictions on AR-15-style rifles.
In the meantime, the poll offers a snapshot of public opinion that will inform political campaigns in the 2026 midterm elections. Candidates in competitive races may adjust their messaging on gun policy based on the numbers, though the issue remains a deeply polarizing one.
Source: www.breitbart.com — https://www.breitbart.com/2nd-amendment/2026/08/26/rasmussen-gun-control-support-falls-among-likely-u-s-voters/