As the war with Iran enters a critical phase, a new strategic analysis argues that President Trump faces a stark choice: continue a grinding military campaign that the regime is trying to survive by negotiation and attrition, or adopt a bold new approach aimed at toppling the government in Tehran outright.
Writing in American Thinker, author Rovvy Lepor contends that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pose the first credible existential threat to the Iranian regime since 1979. But, he warns, the regime is seeking to run out the clock — hoping to outlast the political will in Washington and Jerusalem rather than face decisive defeat.
The Case for Regime Change
Lepor argues that the regime’s nuclear ambitions and its track record of violence — including the killing of tens of thousands of Iranian civilians and attacks targeting about 17 countries — demonstrate that its goal is maximum devastation. Recent battles, he writes, show what the regime would do if it ever acquired a nuclear arsenal.
His conclusion is blunt: leaving the regime in power, even under a new deal, would simply allow it to rebuild its nuclear program and military infrastructure. U.S. and Israeli strikes have degraded Iran’s military capacity, Lepor acknowledges, but there is no indication that the regime is significantly closer to falling as a result.
Instead, he advocates adopting a strategy modeled on Operation Inherent Resolve — the campaign that defeated the ISIS caliphate during Trump’s first term. That approach, Lepor claims, would have a significant chance of toppling the Iranian regime within months.
A Template for Collapse
The historical precedents, he notes, are instructive: In 2017-2019, the ISIS caliphate fell to U.S.-backed Kurdish ground forces with air support and minimal U.S. casualties. In 2011, NATO’s Operation Unified Protector helped topple Muammar Gaddafi in about seven months without Western boots on the ground. And in late 2024, a weakened Assad regime in Syria collapsed in just twelve days.
Lepor argues that a similar result is feasible in Iran — if pro-Western Iranians are armed and trained. His proposed plan begins with U.S. strategic coordination with armed Kurdish and Balochi allies, embedding Joint Terminal Attack Controllers and limited special forces to direct air support and secure border corridors. The U.S. would first eradicate IRGC threats to air dominance, then support allied ground advances into peripheral cities.
The Ground Plan
The initial phase would involve an estimated 20,000 allied-supported Kurdish forces from groups including PDKI, PAK, Komala, and Khabat, targeting northwestern Kurdish strongholds such as Piranshahr, Mahabad, Baneh, and Sanandaj. Simultaneously, U.S. forces would seize Kharg Island to cut off oil revenue and secure strategic targets around the Strait of Hormuz, while Balochi fighters secure southeastern strongholds.
In Phase 2, forces would coordinate with local Ahwazi Arab fighters to liberate Ahvaz and Abadan, and with Azeri forces to take Tabriz and Urmia. Liberated regions would immediately vet, arm, and train Iranian volunteers, seizing weapons from IRGC depots. The expanded army would continue to advance, city by city, until the regime is completely displaced.
The Political Stakes
The piece also highlights the domestic political context. With Democratic Socialists winning key primaries in competitive districts, control of the House is in play. Lepor claims the Iranian regime is seeking to deal Trump a serious political blow by drawing out negotiations and creating the appearance of a quagmire, hoping to flip Congress and ensure its own survival.
He cites a recent Marquette poll showing 30 percent approval for Trump’s handling of the war versus 70 percent disapproval. According to Lepor, such numbers can only be turned around by demonstrating a convincing trajectory toward regime collapse before the midterms.
The stakes, he argues, go beyond politics. If the regime remains in power, it can threaten the lives of Trump and his family — following multiple assassination plots, including one in October 2024 and an attempt in July 2026. This, he writes, is a direct national security threat that cannot be allowed to persist.
The Nuclear Threat
The nuclear dimension is central to the argument. Lepor cites the regime’s tens of thousands of centrifuges, verified 970 pounds of uranium enriched up to 60 percent, the protected Pickaxe Mountain site for mass production of centrifuges, and Israel’s revelation of Iran’s Amad Plan. He also quotes senior Iranian officials who have acknowledged the nuclear weapons program, including former foreign minister Salehi and supreme leader adviser Kamal Kharrazi, as well as former deputy speaker Ali Mottahari, who admitted that the goal from the beginning was to build a bomb.
Striking nuclear facilities, Lepor argues, merely delays the timeline to the bomb. Removing the regime eliminates the nuclear impetus permanently.
Walking the Victories Home
The final warning is about commitment: The campaign must continue until the regime falls, and allies on the ground must not be abandoned mid-fight. Premature withdrawal, Lepor argues, would likely spawn a civil war — eclipsing the over 50,000 Iranians murdered by the regime in January 2026 — and allow the regime to reclaim control.
With the time for talk over, the author’s message is clear: The proven formula from Iraq, Libya, and Syria can be applied to Iran, and the time to act is now.
Source: www.americanthinker.com — https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2026/08/how-to-topple-the-iranian-regime/